杰富瑞：铜箔行业将乘AI浪潮迎来HVLP需求爆发，首予德福、铜冠铜箔买入评级

June15,2026 China (PRC) I Electronic Components CopperFoil to Ride on Al HVLP DemandSurge; Initiate on Defu/TGCF by~15% CAGRtoUSS55bn by2030,driven by30-40%CAGR in high-end product - HVLP shipment for Al infra buildout. Spec upgrades fromshould create opportunities for Chinese vendors of high-end copper foil.players with 37%/27% potential PT upside. Copper foil to move in step with AI PCB/CCL. Echoing our previous initiation on PCB (Link),we forecast ~60% CAGR for AI PCB TAM in 2025-30E driven by sharp rise in Al-related capex.This trend also brings structural changes to electrolytic copper foil as one of the key upstreammaterials for PCB/CCL.We forecast global copperfoil TAM will grow from Rmb192bn inexpensive high-speed product for Al infra with higher technical barriers vs traditional copperfoil. We expect market demand for HVLP to grow from ~1.3kt/mo in 2025 to >6kt/mo in 2030or a 30-40% CAGR, becoming a key driver for overall copperfoil TAM's growth. Spec upgrade to boost AsP. Major Al players (NVIDIA/Google/Amazon) are expected toupgrade their copper foil spec from HVLP1/2/3 to HVLP4 in their new Al servers in 2H26,creating significant demand for the latter. The 2025-30 HVLP volume CAGR outlook of15%-20% at Mitsui Kinzoku, the world's largest HVLP vendor,means an undersupplied marketin our view, which could crreate space for other competent players to gain share. We estimateHVLP4's processing fee per ton could reach >10x that of traditional HTE. Given ongoingdemand shift towards higher-spec products, we believe the copper foil industry's AsP willcontinueto rise. Chinese vendors are gaining traction in Al copper foil. As the surge in Al capex has createdanindustryshortage, webelieveChineseplayers'ability/willingnesstorapidlyexpand capacitywill become a key advantage, allowing them to gain more traction in high-end copper foil. Weanticipate a notable supply gap in the next 1-2 years if we count only non-China capacity. Butglobal HVLP capacity will likely rise from ~2kt/mo in 2025 to >5kt/mo in 2027 (or 3.5-4.0kt/potentially rise from<10% in 2025 to >30% in the next 2-3 years. Initiate on Defu/TGCF at BUY; Defu our top pick. We initiate on Defu/TGCF.Both are leadingChineseplayers inAl copperfoilon customer verificationand shipment volume.TGCFis nowleading in HVLP (already passed HVLP4's qualification) with high-end products contributingmostof 2025 profit, thus the marketsees it as a direct Al beneficiary.For Defu,aside from high-speed copperfoil capabilities, it has an active capacity expansion plan (another 5okt capacityin 2027-28 focusing on high-end), potentially bringing greater long-term upside, and hence wethe rise in share prices over the past months, we think there are potential positive factorsnot fully priced in yet for both companies, such as a further price hike on copper foil drivenby industry-wide supply tightness.We forecast NP CAGRs of 169%/100% in 2026-28E and75%/58% in 2027-29E for Defu/TGCF. Our DCF-based PTs for Defu/TGCF imply 2027E P/E of56x/59x, 2028E P/E of 26x/35x, and 2028E PEG of 0.7x/0.8x, suggesting potential upside of37%/27%. Jacky He * IEquity Analyst+85237438084jacky.he@jefferies.com Edison Lee,CFA* IEquity Analyst85237438009/edison.lee@jefferies.com Carlos Furuya|Equity Analyst+8136830 3618|cfuruya@jefferies.com Nick Cheng*|EquityAnalyst+85237438750Inick.cheng@jefferies.com Matt Ma* Equity Analyst85237671109/matt.ma@jefferies.com AnniePing,CFA,FRM*EquityAssociate+85237671273lannie.ping@jefferies.com Jefferies Summary of Changes Jefferies Table of Contents Glossary of Terms4Executive Summary5The Three-Minute Guide9Copper Foi's Revival: Riding the Tide of Booming AI PCB Demand13Moving towards Higher-end: From HTE/RTF to HVLP/DTH16Supply Tightness Going on: Chinese Players Are Catching Up on High-end20Defu (301511 CH) - Initiate with BUY23Company Overview24Senior Management and Shareholding Structure25Evolving into Competitive High-speed Copper Coil Player with Capacity Edge25Financial Forecasts and Valuation27TGCF (301217 CH) Initiate with BUY34Company Overview35Senior Management and Shareholding Structure35A Leading High-speed Copper Coil Veteran with High Al exposure37Financial Forecasts and Valuation39 Jefferies Glossary of Terms Jefferies Executive Summary In our previous deep dive report on the PCB industry (Link), we forecast ~15% CAGR in 2025-30 growth is likely to continue to be supported by tech giants rising capex plans. We believe thistrend has also brought structural changes to electrolytic copper foil, which acts is one of the keyupstreammaterialsforPCB/CCLtobeadoptedon server,switch,opticaltransceiveretc.Inadditionto PcB, copper foil is also widely adopted in lithium battery, and we observe the industry demand isaccelerating as well, further fueling the expansion of copper foil's market size. We forecast ~15%CAGR in 2025-30 for the global TAM of copper foil. Specifically, we see HVLP, as a critical high-speed copper foil variant, has al