科技日报 0610美股盘前-20260611

TMT BREAKOUTJUN 10, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Futures -70bpsrallying close to 1% after a CPI that was slightly coolerup 0.2% m/m vs expects of 0.3% m/m. Fed expects moving very slightly in a dovishdirection while yields are flattish. In Tech, no big discrepancy among sectors with bothsoftware/internet/semis down about the same following the big Fable/Mythos releaseyesterday from Anthropic. 早上好。期货在CPI数据公布后上涨近1%，⽬前报-70bps。CPI环⽐上涨0.2%，略低于预期的0.3%。美联储预期⼩幅向鸽派⽅向移动，⽽收益率持平。科技股⽅⾯，各板块之间没有明显差异，在Anthropic昨天发布重磅的Fable/Mythos模型后，软件、互联⽹和半导体板块的跌幅⼤致相当。 Asiagenerally weaker overnight although AI names were down: TPX -1.25%, NKY-1.89%, Hang Seng -0.64%, HSCEI -0.07%, SHCOMP -0.42%, Shenzhen -1.97%,Taiwan TAIEX -3.31%, Korea KOSPI -4.52%.Kioxia -8%; Softbank/Samsung/SKHynix -8-10% 亚洲市场隔夜普遍⾛弱，尽管AI相关个股出现下跌：东证指数（TPX）-1.25%，⽇经指数（NKY）-1.89%，恒⽣指数-0.64%，恒⽣中国企业指数（HSCEI）-0.07%，上证综指（SHCOMP）-0.42%，深证成指-1.97%，台湾加权指数（TAIEX）-3.31%，韩国综合指数（KOSPI）-4.52%。铠侠（Kioxia）-8%；软银/三星/SK海⼒⼠下跌8-10%。 Lots to get to so let’s get straight to it… 内容很多，我们直接进⼊正题…… OpenAI: OpenAI in Talks to Lease 10 Gigawatt Ohio DataCenter with Backing From Nvidia OpenAI：OpenAI正洽谈在英伟达的⽀持下，租赁位于俄亥俄州的10吉瓦（Gigawatt）数据中⼼。 TheInformation:TheInformation： OpenAIis in advanced negotiations to lease a proposed 10 gigawatt data centercampus on federal land in Ohio as part of a deal that could include financial backingfromNvidia, according to two people with direct knowledge of the discussions. 据两名直接知情⼈⼠透露，OpenAI正就租赁俄亥俄州联邦⼟地上拟建的10吉瓦（GW）数据中⼼园区进⾏深⼊谈判，该交易可能包括来⾃Nvidia的资⾦⽀持。 The campus under discussion would be among the biggest of its kind, with a totalcost of at least$500 billion if fully built out based on today’s prices for chips, labor,power and other materials, the people said. 知情⼈⼠表示，讨论中的园区将是同类设施中规模最⼤的之⼀。如果按照⽬前的芯⽚、劳动⼒、电⼒和其他材料价格完全建成，其总成本将⾄少达到5000亿美元。 OpenAI would control the equipment in the facility under a long-term lease andwould be on the hook for payments once the project starts operations, with the firstphase expected in 2028. The discussions haven’t been finalized and plans couldchange. 根据⻓期租赁协议，OpenAI将控制该设施内的设备，并需在项⽬开始运营后承担⽀付义务，第⼀阶段预计将于2028年启动。⽬前讨论尚未最终敲定，计划仍可能发⽣变化。 OpenAI: SoftBank Attempt to Get$6 Billion OpenAIMargin Loan Stalls OpenAI：软银试图获取60亿美元OpenAI股权质押贷款的计划陷⼊停滞 Bloomberg: SoftBank Group Corp.’s talks with potential creditors to raise at least$6 billion froma margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake have stalled, people familiar with thematter said, just weeks after the Japanese conglomeratecutits initial target from$10 billion. 据知情⼈⼠透露，软银集团（SoftBank Group Corp.）与潜在债权⼈就以其持有的OpenAI股份为抵押筹集⾄少60亿美元质押贷款（margin loan）的谈判已陷⼊停滞。就在⼏周前，这家⽇本企业集团刚将其最初100亿美元的⽬标下调。 The company is considering various fundraising options, according to the people,who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. It could still moveforward with the margin loan at a later stage, they added. 据知情⼈⼠透露，该公司正在考虑多种融资⽅案。由于讨论内容涉及隐私，这些⼈⼠要求匿名。他们补充道，该公司仍可能在后期阶段继续推进保证⾦贷款。 It’s unclear why the margin loan discussions stalled. ⽬前尚不清楚保证⾦贷款谈判陷⼊停滞的原因。 TSMC May 2026 revenue: NT$417.0B (+1.5% MoM,+30.1% YoY) 台积电2026年5⽉营收：4,170.0亿新台币（环⽐增⻓1.5%，同⽐增⻓30.1%） 5 year median is 0.9%, so this is roughly in line with that. 5年中位数为0.9%，因此这⼀数据与该⽔平基本⼀致。 QTD through two months: April NT$410.73B + May NT$416.98B = NT$827.7B, i.e.66.9% of the low end and 65.9% of the midpoint. For reference, Apr+May has madeup 67–72% of Q2 revenue in each of the last four years (67.1% in ‘22, 67.5% in ‘23,69.1% in ‘24, 71.8% in ‘25). 本季度前两个⽉表现：4⽉4,107.3亿新台币+ 5⽉4,169.8亿新台币= 8,277亿新台币，即达到指引低端的66.9%和中值的65.9%。作为参考，在过去四年中，4⽉和5⽉的收⼊总和占第⼆季度收⼊的67–72%（2022年为67.1%，2023年为67.5%，2024年为69.1%，2025年为71.8%）。 For reference, June has been down MoM four straight years (−5.3%,−11.4%,−9.5%,−17.7% from ‘22 to ‘25; ~−11% average), which would imply they would need tooutperform June to hit their guide. 作为参考，6⽉份的收⼊已连续四年环⽐下降（2022年⾄2025年分别为-5.3%、-11.4%、-9.5%、-17.7%；~平均下降11%），这意味着他们需要6⽉份的表现优于往年才能达到指引⽬标。 However, given stronger TWD and assuming flattish June (March/April/May haveplateaued at NT$410–417B, which looks like supply-constrained) gets you right at themidpt. 然⽽，考虑到新台币⾛强，并假设6⽉份表现持平（3⽉/4⽉/5⽉已稳定在4,100–4,170亿新台币，看起来像是受供应限制），这将使结果正好处于中值⽔平。 Optics: Morgan Stanley Says CPO Sentiment Has Reset,but the Long-Term Opportunity Remains Intact 观点：摩根⼠丹利表示CPO情绪已重新调整，但⻓期机遇依然稳固 Morgan Stanley addressed growing investor concerns around CPO and argued the recent pullback reflects a reset in expectations rather than a change in the long-termthesis. 摩根⼠丹利（Morgan Stanley）针对投资者对共封装光学（CPO）⽇益增⻓的担忧做出了回应，并指出近期的回调反映的是预期的重置，⽽⾮⻓期逻辑的改变。 The firm now models 2027 optical engine shipments of roughly 6-7M units, well belowsome market expectations, citing downstream assembly yields of 20-50% andbroader manufacturing bottlenecks as key constraints. 该机构⽬前模拟2027年光学引擎的出货量约为600万⾄700万个，远低于部分市场预期。其理由是下游组装良率仅为20-50%，且更⼴泛的制造瓶颈是主要的制约因素。 While this pushes out the near-term CPO ramp, Morgan Stanley believes the industryremains at an inflection point, with CPO adoption beginning around 2028