科技日报-美股盘前-20260611

TMT BREAKOUTJUN 11, 2026∙PAID Good morning.Futures +1.3%despite some fire between Iran and US overnight asmedia reporting negotiations are still containing as efforts to reach a deal areintensifying.Oil -1%asyields tick down 2-4bpsacross the curve. 早上好。尽管隔夜伊朗与美国之间发⽣了⼀些冲突，但期货仍上涨1.3%，媒体报道称，随着达成协议的努⼒不断加强，谈判仍在继续。油价下跌1%，各期限收益率下降2-4个基点。 In Tech,semisare leading the way higher withINTC (+5%)up on a dbl ug at BofA,Memory following Asia strength overnight(SNDK/MU +3-5%),and semicaps lookingto be the first AI semi group to be regaining 52wk highs(ASML/AMAT +5%).ORCL-5%as print did nothing to change the bull/bear debate although bears had more fuelthis morning with the IaaS miss and lack of FY27 raise. Apps missed as well which hassoftware underperforming early. 科技股⽅⾯，半导体板块领涨：INTC (+5%)在美银（BofA）双重上调评级后⾛⾼；存储芯⽚紧随隔夜亚洲市场的强势表现（SNDK/MU上涨3-5%）；半导体设备（semicaps）有望成为⾸个重回52周⾼点的AI半导体细分板块（ASML/AMAT上涨5%）。ORCL下跌5%，其财报未能改变多空争论，不过由于IaaS营收不及预期且未上调2027财年指引，空⽅在今早占据了上⻛。应⽤软件（Apps）表现同样不佳，导致软件板块早盘表现落后。 InAsia, mixed px action: TPX -0.45%, NKY +0.06%, Hang Seng -0.65%, HSCEI-1.22%, SHCOMP -0.16%, Shenzhen -0.66%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.18%, Korea KOSPI +0.43% butSamsung +3%, Kixoia +4% SK Hynix +7%. 亚洲市场涨跌互现：东证指数（TPX）-0.45%，⽇经指数（NKY）+0.06%，恒⽣指数-0.65%，恒⽣中国企业指数（HSCEI）-1.22%，上证综指（SHCOMP）-0.16%，深证成指-0.66%，台湾加权指数（TAIEX）-0.18%，韩国综合指数（KOSPI）+0.43%，但三星上涨3%，铠侠（Kioxia）上涨4%，SK海⼒⼠上涨7%。 SpaceX (SPCX)starts trading tomorrow (we have some Starlink 3p data below). SpaceX (SPCX)将于明天开始交易（我们在下⽅提供了⼀些Starlink的第三⽅数据）。 Lots to get to so let’s get to it… 要处理的内容很多，让我们直接进⼊正题…… ORCL -8%: Solid AI-infra/RPO quarter with betterrevenue, EPS and OM, but IaaS missed buyside bogeys,and debate continues between accelerating OCI visibilityand concerns on unchanged FY27 revenue guide, SaaSdecel, & FY27 GM/capex and financing. ORCL -8%：AI基础设施/RPO季度表现稳健，营收、每股收益（EPS）和营业利润率（OM）均超出预期，但IaaS未能达到买⽅预期。⽬前市场争论点在于：⼀⽅⾯是OCI可⻅度不断提升，另⼀⽅⾯则是对维持不变的2027财年营收指引、SaaS增速放缓，以及2027财年⽑利率（GM）、资本⽀出（capex）和融资情况的担忧。 The #s: Revenue was$19.184B, +20.6% y/y / +20% CC (last q +21.7% / +18% CC) vsStreet ~$19.10B, +~19.5-20%; EPS was$2.11 vs Street$1.96; non-GAAP OM was44.8% vs Street ~43.3-43.5%. 营收为191.84亿美元，同⽐增⻓20.6% /按固定汇率（CC）计算增⻓20%（上季度为+21.7% / +18% CC），⽽市场预期为~191.0亿美元，增⻓约19.5-20%；EPS为2.11美元，⾼于市场预期的1.96美元；⾮公认会计准则（non-GAAP）营业利润率为44.8%，⾼于市场预期的~43.3-43.5%。 Cloud was$9.913B, +47% y/y / +46% CC, slightly below Street, with OCI/IaaS$5.787B, +93% y/y / +92% CC vs Street roughly low-90s growth and buyside inmid 90s, while SaaS/Cloud Apps slowed to$4.126B, +10% y/y / +9% CC vs Streetcloser to low-teens. 云业务营收为99.13亿美元，同⽐增⻓47% /按固定汇率计算增⻓46%，略低于市场预期。其中OCI/IaaS为57.87亿美元，同⽐增⻓93% /按固定汇率计算增⻓92%，⽽市场预期增⻓约90%出头，买⽅预期在95%左右；同时SaaS/云应⽤增速放缓⾄41.26亿美元，同⽐增⻓10% /按固定汇率计算增⻓9%，⽽市场预期接近10%-15%的低区间。 RPO was the stock-moving standout at$638B, +363% y/y, up$85B q/q vs Streetaround$577B, with$67B of AI infra contracts signed and BYOH/prepaidcommitments now$75B. RPO（剩余履约义务）是推动股价波动的亮点，达到6380亿美元，同⽐增⻓363%，环⽐增加850亿美元，⾼于市场预期的约5770亿美元；其中签署了670亿美元的AI基础设施合同，BYOH（⾃带硬件）/预付承诺⽬前为750亿美元。 F1Q27 guide was above Street: revenue +27-29% y/y, cloud +58-64% USD / +57-63% CC, EPS$1.72-$1.76 vs Street ~$1.68-$1.69; 2027财年第⼀季度指引⾼于市场预期：营收同⽐增⻓27-29%，云业务以美元计增⻓58-64% /以固定汇率计增⻓57-63%，每股收益（EPS）为1.72-1.76美元，⽽市场预期为~1.68-1.69美元； FY27 revenue guide stayed$90B, +34%, above Street but unchanged, and EPSguide moved to$8.05. FY27 capex of$90-95B was well above Street (~$62-85Brange), though net cash capex of ~$70B (after$20-25B of customer prepays)was in line to slightly better than feared. 2027财年营收指引维持在900亿美元，同⽐增⻓34%，⾼于市场预期但保持不变，EPS指引上调⾄8.05美元。2027财年资本⽀出指引为900-950亿美元，远⾼于市场预期（约620-850亿美元范围），不过扣除200-250亿美元客户预付款后的净现⾦资本⽀出为~700亿美元，符合预期或略好于市场担忧。 Key Takeaways: RPO was$638B, +363% y/y, up$85B q/q, and cRPO accelerated to +68% y/yfrom +65%. The RPO add was driven largely by AI infra contracts, including fourcustomers signing$8B+ deals, while reports also noted a base of smaller$100-$300M deals, which helps push back on OpenAI-concentration concerns. 12% ofRPO converts to revenue in the NTM (implying cRPO of$76.6B, +68% y/y), 34%in months 13-36, with both percentages expected to rise as capacity ramps. RPO为6380亿美元，同⽐增⻓363%，环⽐增加850亿美元，且cRPO（当前剩余履约义务）增速从65%加速⾄68%。RPO的增⻓主要由AI基础设施合同驱动，包括四家客户签署了超过80亿美元的订单，同时报告还指出存在⼤量1-3亿美元的⼩型订单，这有助于缓解市场对OpenAI集中度的担忧。RPO的12%将在未来12个⽉内转化为收⼊（意味着cRPO为766亿美元，同⽐增⻓68%），34%将在第13-36个⽉内转化，随着产能爬坡，这两个百分⽐预计都将上升。 The majority of Q4 bookings were prepaid or bring-your-own-hardware; thesenow total$75B of RPO with "no degradation in margin," some at better grossmargins and meaningfully higher ROIC (mgmt cites high-20s ROIC at steadystate). Customer prepays cut FY27 net cash capex to ~$70B vs$90-95Breported. 第四季度的⼤部分预订为预付费或⾃带硬件模式；⽬前剩余履约义务（RPO）总额达750亿美元，且“利润率没有退化”，部分订单的⽑利率更⾼，资本回报率（ROIC）也显著提升（管理层提到稳态下的ROIC在20%以上）。客户预付款将2027财年的净现⾦资本⽀出从报告的900-950亿美元削减⾄~700亿美元。 ORCL delivered >1.2GW in FY26 and expects F1Q27 delivery approaching 1GW,nearly the same as the prior four quarters combined. Abilene is 42% deliveredwith another 35% expected in the next 90 days, and s