印尼经济展望，2026年6月：管理风险，释放生产力

June 2026 © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions, and is supported by fundingfrom the Australian Government under the Australia-World Bank Indonesia Partnership (ABIP) program. Thefindings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this workand does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liabilitywith respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. All images used in the report are AI generated.The report is designed and typeset by Arsianti. Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXESIV PREFACEVI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 A. ECONOMIC UPDATE7 1. Recent Economic Developments72. The Policy Stance163. Outlook and Risks204. Policy Priorities22 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES TABLES Table 1: Managing Risks and Unlocking Productivity: Priority Reform Areas4Table A.1: BI’s Seven Strategies to Support Rupiah19Table A.2: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators32 BOXES Box A.1: Indonesia’s Recent Trade Agreements11Box A.2: Labor Market Structural Long-Term Trends15Box A.3: Monitoring Logistics with KPIs: Building Indonesia’s Logistics Performance Dashboard30 P re f a c e The Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP) is a bi-annual World Bank report that assesses recent macroeconomicdevelopments, the outlook, and risks, as well as specific development challenges for the Indonesian economy.The IEP aims to inform the public policy debate and serves a broad audience including the general public,government, private sector, civil society organizations, and other domestic and international stakeholders. The IEP is a product of the World Bank Jakarta office. The report is co-led by Wael Mansour (Senior Economist),Mehwish Ashraf (Senior Economist), Mochamad Pasha (Senior Economist), and David Knight (Lead Economist),under the guidance of Carolyn Turk (Division Director for Indonesia and Timor-Leste), Lalita Moorty (RegionalPractice Director), and Marco Hernandez (Practice Manager). Deviana Djalil provided administrative support and coordinated the organization of the report launch event. Thedissemination was organized by Gb Surya Ningnagara and Maulyati N. Slamet under the guidance of LestariBoediono Qureshi. The report was designed and typeset by Arsianti. The report was prepared by Wael Mansour, Dwi Endah Abriningrum, Indira Maulani Hapsari, Mehwish Ashraf,Ratih Dwi Rahmadanti, Rully Prassetya, and David Knight. Inputs were provided by Lamiaa Bennis and MochamadPasha (Logistics analysis), Ou Nie, Neni Lestari and Jing Zhao (Financial sector analysis), Sailesh Tiwari, BambangSuharnoko Sjahrir, Ririn Salwa Purnamasari, Samuel Nursamsu, Mahdi Barouni, Dirk Heine, and FaustynaGawryluk (Subsidy, poverty and labor analysis), Rama Krishnan Venkateswaran, Cut Dian Rahmi Dwi Agustina,Shomikho Raha, and Andyan Diwangkari (Public investment management analysis), Juan M. Hernandez, and MadiSarsenbayev (Debt sustainability analysis). Ergys Islamaj and Gitanjali Kumar provided valuable comments. This report is available for download in English and Indonesian via:www.worldbank.org/iepPrevious report editions: •December 2025:Digital Foundations for Growth•June 2025: People-First Housing: A Roadmap from Homes to Jobs to Prosperity in Indonesia•December 2024:Funding Indonesia’s Vision 2045 To receive the IEP and related publications by email, please contact ddjalil@worldbank.org. For questions andcomments, please contact mashraf3@worldbank.organdmpasha1@worldbank.org For information about the World Bank and its activities in Indonesia, please vi