赞比亚-国家经济备忘录：释放生产力和经济转型，创造更好的就业机会

Zambia CountryEconomic MemorandumUnlocking productivity and economictransformation for better jobsJune 2024Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global PracticeEast and Southern Africa RegionThe World Bank Group This report was prepared by a team led by Albert Pijuan Sala (Senior Economist), Jorge TudelaPye (Economist), and Paavo Eliste (Practice Manager). The team included Philip Schuler (LeadEconomist), Joseph Simumba (Economist), Maria Gabriela Farfan (Senior Economist), LylianaGayoso(Consultant),Vanina Forget(Senior Agriculture Economist),Auckland N.Kuteya(Consultant), Brian Mulenga (Consultant), Ryan Kuo (Economist), Sophia Muradyan (Senior PrivateSector Specialist), Soujanya Choda varapu (Senior Private Sector Specialist), and NamuchanaMuyawa (Program Assistant). Chapter 3 of the CEM draws from a research collaboration withthe Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA). Fiona Hinchcliffe provided editorial support and KatarinaZeravica designed the report. The report was prepared under the overall guidance of Nathan M.Belete (Country Director, AECE1), Achim Fock (Country Manager, AEMZM), Abha Prasad (PracticeManager, EAEM1), Aghassi Mkrtchyan (Program Leader and Lead Economist, AECE1), and WilliamBattaile (former Program Leader and Lead Country Economist, AECE1). The team would also liketo acknowledge the comments from peer reviewers and colleagues Allen Dennis, Alex Sienaert,Dino Merotto, Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Hanane Ahmed, John Keyser, Nicolo Dalvit, Fausto PatinoPena, Isaku Endo, Ahmed Rostom, Andreas Eberhard, Shaun Mann, and Mohammad Farid Al AzimBin Noruzi. The team also gratefully acknowledges the collaboration with the Government of theRepublic of Zambia and development partners.Regional Vice President:Victoria KwakwaCountry Director:Nathan M. BeleteRegional Director:Hassan ZamanPractice Manager:Abha PrasadTask Team Leaders:Albert Pijuan Sala, Jorge Tudela Pye, and Paavo ElisteACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Country Economic Memorandum 2024TABLE OF CONTENTSACRONYMS�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������2EXECUTIVE SUMMARY�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������4Main policy recommendations.......................................................................................................10CHAPTER 1: REFOCUSING ZAMBIA’S GROWTH MODEL������������������������������������������������������141.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................141.2 From a mining boom to fiscal gloom – Zambia’s shifting drivers of growth............................171.3 Nothing new under the sun – limitations of Zambia’s current model for achievingsustained and inclusive growth..............................................................................................211.4 Transforming how Zambia grows.............................................................................................27Annex 1. Growth Accounting - Growth, labor productivity, and total factor productivitydecomposition................................................................................................................35CHAPTER 2: UNLEASHING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY�����������������������������������������������362.1 Zambian agriculture: High unrealized potential and declining productivity............................372.2 Agronomic causes of declining agricultural productivity.........................................................422.3 The role of public policies and institutions in agricultural stagnation.....................................472.4 Policy recommendations.........................................................................................................56Annex 2. Underlying data and figures............................................................................................62CHAPTER 3: RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF FIRMS AND WORKERS���������������������������������673.1 Harnessing Zambia’s private sector for better jobs.................................................................683.2 Exploring formal firms and jobs in Zambia..............................................................................693.3 Falling labor productivity in the formal sector........................................................................763.4 What’s driving productivity decline?.......................................................................................823.5 Policy recommendations.........................................................................................................90Annex 3.Detailed productivity estimation and decomposition methodology...............................99REFERENCES�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������103 1 Country Economic Memorandum 20242ACRONYMSAfCFTAAfrica Continental Free Trade AreaCEMCount