圣多美和普林西比经济最新情况：改革国有企业，实现私营部门主导的更高增长和创造就业机会

ReformingState-OwnedEnterprises FOR HIGHERPRIVATE SECTOR-LEDGROWTH AND JOB CREATION ReformingState-OwnedEnterprises FOR HIGHERPRIVATE SECTOR-LEDGROWTH AND JOB CREATION © 2025 International Bank for Reconstructionand Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with externalcontributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, itsBoard of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or cur-rency of the data included in this work and does not assume respon-sibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in thiswork do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank con-cerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accept-ance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to bea limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of TheWorld Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The WorldBank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be re-produced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long asfull attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, shouldbe addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design, interior design and typesetting:Piotr Ruczynski,London, United Kingdom, prucz.co.uk Contents vAcknowledgmentsviiAbbreviations and Acronyms 1Overview 5CHAPTER 1The State of the Economy 6Recent Developments11Economic Outlook and Risks Reforming State-Owned Enterprisesfor Higher Private Sector-Led Growth and Job Creation 16Overview of the State-Owned Enterprise Landscape in São Toméand Príncipe17The Role of SOEsin São Tomé and Príncipe’s Economy18Financial and Operational Performance of the SOE Sector20Fiscal Risks from SOEs21Recent Efforts to Reform the SOE Sector23Challenges in SOE Governance24Selected Policy Recommendations 26References Boxes 6BOX 1.1EMAE’s financial situation and itsimplications for fiscal sustainability 22BOX 2.1The Importance of PerformanceManagement Figures 11FIGURE 1.10Central government’s overall andprimary fiscal balance11FIGURE 1.11Annual GDP and GDPper capita growth12FIGURE 1.12Domestic primary balance(commitment basis)17FIGURE 2.1SOE domestic revenue-to-GDP ratio,against comparators in 201919FIGURE 2.2Fiscal risk from loss making EMAE20FIGURE 2.3Balance Owed by SOEs to theGovernment in 202321FIGURE 2.4Balancing SOE Reform Options24FIGURE 2.5Steps for Effective PerformanceManagement System 6FIGURE 1.1Annual real GDP growth, 2003–247FIGURE 1.2International arrivals to São Toméand Príncipe7FIGURE 1.3São Tomé and Príncipe’s GDPper capita relative to Sub-Saharan Africa (left)and SIDS (right) average8FIGURE 1.4Employment rate: total, male,female, and youth8FIGURE 1.5Headline inflation8FIGURE 1.6CPI inflation and contributions fromfood prices9FIGURE 1.7Current account and its components9FIGURE 1.8International reserves and fuel imports10FIGURE 1.9Credit to the economy (excludingcentral government) Tables 13TABLE 1.1Economic trends and forecasts,2021 to 202716TABLE 2.1SOEs in São Tomé and Príncipe (2023)18TABLE 2.2SOE Portfolio Profitability Ratios 19TABLE 2.3Financial Performance of SOE Portfolio24TABLE 2.4Policy Recommendations for ImprovingSOE Corporate Governance Acknowledgments The São Tomé and Príncipe Economic Update series aim at: providing rigorous and timely analysis to São Toméand Príncipe’s stakeholders in government, academia, media, international partners, and the wider population in-terested in the country’s future economic development; connecting São Tomé and Príncipe with global and regionaldevelopments to help benchmark the country against international trends and relevant peer countries; providing aplatform to facilitate knowledge-sharing of the World Bank’s various analytical and lending activities in São Toméand Príncipe, as well as those produced globally; and generating a community of economic stakeholders which theWorld Bank can engage with and support in their own efforts to analyze economic developments in São Tomé andPríncipe and formulate and discuss economic policies. This Economic Update was prepared by a multidisciplinary team led by Bénédicte Baduel (Senior Country Economist)under the guidance of Chadi Bou Habib (Lead Economist). Chapter 1 was prepared by Joaquin Marandino(Consultant). Cha