《蒙古经济更新》，2026年4月：保持稳定和韧性——特别关注：利用集聚提高乌兰巴托的生产力

Maintaining Stability and Resilience Special Focus:Harnessing Agglomeration forProductivity in Ulaanbaatar MONGOLIAECONOMIC UPDATE Maintaining Stability and Resilience © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this workand does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liabilitywith respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorsesthe views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of the World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions TThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the World BankPublications, the World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo and pictures: © Batbaatar Jambal / Baku’s Picture. Used with the permission of Batbaatar Jambal.Further permission required for reuse. Design: Baku’s Design CONTENTS List of boxes, figures, and tables ABBREVIATIONS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This edition of the Mongolia Economic Update (MEU) was led by Undral Batmunkh(Economist) and Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez (Senior Economist), with contributions fromErdenebulgan Ganbat (Consultant) and Mijiddorj Lkhagvasuren (Consultant), under theguidance of Mara K. Warwick (Division Director), Habib Nasser Rab (Practice Manager), TaeHyun Lee (Country Manager), and Elitza Mileva (Lead Economist). The team is grateful toJavkhlan Bold-Erdene (External Affairs Associate) for her support on communication affairsand Sukhchimeg Tumur for administrative support. The special focus chapter (Chapter 2) of this MEU is an adaptation from a forthcoming WorldBank Policy Research Working Paper“Beyond the Urban Sweet Spot: Firm-Level Evidence ofOver-Agglomeration in Mongolia’s Capital”,authored by Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez and MijiddorjLkhagvasuren as part of a collaboration between the World Bank and Bank of Mongolia.Chyi-Yun Huang (Senior Urban Specialist) and Xiao Wu (Urban Development Analyst)provided valuable input to the policy discussion section of the chapter. Box 1 was preparedin collaboration with the Ministry of Finance (Financial Research Department) and Box 4was prepared by Ergys Islamaj (Senior Economist). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this update are those of theWorld Bank staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of theWorld Bank or the governments they represent. For information about the World Bank andits activities in Mongolia, please visithttps://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mongolia.For questions and comments on the contents of this publication, please contact UndralBatmunkh(ubatmunkh@worldbank.org).The cutoff date for this edition of the MEU isMarch 31, 2026. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chapter 1: Recent Economic Developments and Outlook Despite trade disruptions and elevated geopolitical tensions, Mongolia’s economic growthremained strong in 2025, reaching 6.9 percent.Growth was driven mainly by a strongrebound in agriculture following dzud-related losses, alongside solid mining performance.The latter was led by copper production at Oyu Tolgoi (OT), a key mine, which offsetweaker coal activity (Figure ES.1). Non-mining activity was mixed, with strong growth inconstruction and manufacturing, while trade and other services moderated. These developments supported household incomes, private consumption, and exports.Private consumption remained robust, contributing to inflation averaging 8.6 percent, withadditional pressures from higher food and energy prices. However, consumption graduallylost momentum over the year amid softening labor market conditions and slower growthin real incomes and consumer credit (Figure ES.2). Net ex