泡泡玛特中国销售追踪：线下增长及生产力减速；2026年风险

Pop Mart China Sales Tracker: Deceleration in offline growth andproductivity; risks in 2026 To supplement our Pop Mart high-frequency tracker report (link), we launchthis tracker dedicated to China sales tracking, covering ~70% China revenuefrom offline store data and online platform data.November results indicate a sharpdeceleration in offline growth and productivity, raising questions about 2026 sustainability. Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Pop Mart's China offline same-store performance signals customer saturation.Revenue per store fell to RMB 1.07mn in November (+57% YoY) from October's RMB 1.30mn (+94% YoY), breaking a five-month plateau. Sales/sqm dropped to RMB 6,900from the RMB ~8,000 baseline sustained in August-October, despite year-end launchesand promotions. The question for 2026: Is RMB 8,000/sqm a sustainable productivity floorthat supports store expansion, or a customer ceiling that indicates the existing collectorbase is tapped out? November's decline despite tilts towards saturation, 2026 growthshifts from proven lifecycle monetisation to riskier customer acquisition beyond the currentcollectors. Whether new IP launches expand the addressable market or simply rotatespending among existing fans will determine if store expansion delivers returns or dilutesproductivity. Frankie Fong+852 2123 2637frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com China's online channels showed a festival-induced spike masking potential underlying weakness.November GMV jumped +144% YoY (flagship stores +190%YoY) driven by 11.11 promotions and pre-Christmas launches, yet offline productivityfell, indicating channel shift or demand pull-forward rather than genuine expansion. Whatto watch for: December-January performance will confirm whether November's onlinestrength was a calendar impact or the start of sustained momentum. Current evidencepoints to the former, with both channels converging on customer saturation withoutblockbuster IP replacements. 2H25 China growth will likely decelerate to +130% YoY, and 2026 faces deceleration Risk.Combined China channels (offline + online) suggest +74% growth in2H25 YTD up to November (compared with 2H24 YTD), down from +138% in 1H25. Weexpect online GMV to decelerate to +128% YoY in 2H25 from +238% in 1H25, with Q425 YTD up to November at +24% YoY. Offline retail sales suggests +66% in 2H25 YTD upto November (compared with 2H24), with QTD 25 (Oct and Nov) at +59% YoY driven bystore expansion and productivity gains (November productivity at RMB 6,900/sqm remainsbelow RMB 8,000 baseline). The 2026 outlook faces further deceleration:(1) online likely falls below +100% asLABUBU comps turn difficult without confirmed replacement IP, (2) offline's Q4 paceappears unsustainable without aggressive expansion or SSSG recovery (no evidenceof either), and (3) Overseas must over-deliver to compensate, yet U.S. indicators showweakening, leaving all three growth pillars facing deceleration risks. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Pop Mart Underperform with a price target of HKD 225 based on 18x NTM+1 P/E. VALUATION COMPS TABLE *Bandai Namco is covered by Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu; Netflix and Disney are covered by Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon; the rest are not covered ; Bloksearnings growth is 2025-2026 consensus forecasted growth; Sanrio and Bandai Namco FY24 ends March 2025; HAS using adj. EPS given reported EPS isdistorted in 2025; Data as January 9th, 2026Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis DETAILS POP MART CHINA REVENUE MIX Retail stores account for over 50% of Pop Mart's China revenue, with an additional 11% from other offline channels (roboshops,wholesale, and others) in 1H25, meaning total offline generates ~61% of domestic sales. Within online channels, the proprietaryPop Drow app leads China digital sales with 38%, and 62% are generated from 3rdparty plaforms including Tmall flagship storeand Douyin platform in 1H25. EXHIBIT 3:Within online channels, 62% are generatedfrom 3rd party plaforms, including Tmall flagship storeand Douyin platform in 1H25. 1H25 China revenue by channels 1H25 China online channels breakdown CHINA OFFLINE SALES (COMP STORES) Pop Mart's China offline revenue shows a momentum loss after months of stabilisation. Revenue per store peaked at RMB1.4mn in June, stabilized around RMB 1.3mn through October, then dropped to RMB 1.07mn in November. Productivity persquare meter (sales/sqm) similarly declined from RMB ~8,000 (Aug-Oct) to RMB 6,900. The November weakness, whethertransitory or structural, suggests organic demand has plateaued without new catalysts, shifting 2026 growth dependency fromLABUBU tailwinds to uncertain and untested product pipeline. REVENUE PER STORE: SEQUENTIAL DECELERATION •Comp stores averaged RMB 1.07mn (+57% YoY), down from October's RMB 1.30mn (+94% YoY) •Follows 5 months of RMB ~1.3mn stabilisation since June 3Q25 elevated by Mini-LABUB