您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美国银行证券]:SanDisk公司的供需平衡仍然紧张,定价强劲;目标价上调至2100美元。 - 发现报告

SanDisk公司的供需平衡仍然紧张,定价强劲;目标价上调至2100美元。

2026-06-08 美国银行证券 杜佛光
报告封面

Supply/Demand balance remains tight,pricing strong; PO to $2100 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 2,100.00 USD | Price: 1,559.32 USD New Business Models win-win for the industry 08 June 2026 Ivan Donaldson and Jasmine Nouri fromSanDisk Investor Relations attended our 2026Global Technology Conference in San Francisco. The company did not provide anyupdate to its guidance. Investor questions focused on the multi-year supply partnershipsbetween SanDisk and its customers, referred to as new business models (NBMs). TheNBMs include fixed pricing for an initial period, followed by variable pricing over the restof the contract. The contracts are designed so that margins remain within guidancerange, even if pricing is at the floor (and the floor remains unchanged during the Equity Pricing trends remain strong in the near term So far, SanDisk has signed up over a third of its F27 revenue via NBMs, which meansthat over 60% of its NAND supply is still available for customers to purchase (albeit athigher prices vs. a year ago).Over time we see a path to a higher proportion of supplyunder these NBMs thereby driving more stability in earnings. Pricing trends indicatecontinued ASP increases and we model higher price increases through C26. We expect Wamsi MohanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3854wamsi.mohan@bofa.com Ruplu BhattacharyaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 0315ruplu.bhattacharya@bofa.com Protectionsare in place in case demand slows The five NBMs signed so far have varying contract durationsto prevent SanDisk fromfacing all contracts expiring at the same time. The three contracts signed during F3Qprovide minimum contractual revenue of $42bn, and in aggregate, the five agreementssigned so far include financial guarantees exceeding $11bn and include prepayments($400mn) and other financial instruments managed by third-party financial institutions. Aisling GrueningerResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 4273aisling.grueninger@bofa.com Ryan Seungin ChoiResearchAnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0587ryan.choi2@bofa.com Raising estimates; PO moves to $2100 (from $1550) Given strong trends in pricing and continued strong demand we raise our estimates. OurF27 rev/EPS move to $44bn/$188 from $37.7bn/$154. Our PO moves to $2100 (from$1550) on approx. 10x (unchanged) C27E EPS of $199 (prior $154). BofASecurities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. iQprofileSMSandisk Corporation Company SectorIT Hardware Company Description Sandisk (SNDK) is is aleading developer, manufacturer andprovider of data storage devices and solutions based onNAND flash technology. SNDK has a growing solid statedrive and storage systems portfolio, and is currently the Investment Rationale We rate SNDK Buy. We expect long-term growth in demandfor data storage using NAND, mainly driven by generative AI& eSSD share gains / demand in the data center. Model Price objective basis & risk Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Our PO of $2,100 is based on approximately 10x C27E EPS of $199 which is in line withSNDK's global memory peers' average due to similar profitability. Upside risks: 1) we are earlier than expected in the NAND upcycle, 2) stronger thanexpected expansion in the NAND market on sales of AI enabled consumer products, 3)faster than expected eSSD market share gains, and 4) faster than expected recovery in Downside risks: 1) sharp drop in NAND prices due to oversupply, 2) Competition and overexpansion from Chinese suppliers such as YMTC, 3) slower than expected adoption of AI Analyst Certification I, Wamsi Mohan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research reportaccurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I alsocertify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related Disclosures Important Disclosures Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 31 Mar 2026) FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicatorsof potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst’s assessment of both a stock’s absolute total returnpotential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocksare expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things,the 0-12 month total return expectat