豪梅特航空航天公司评级增持 目标价上调至318美元

Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com Adrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.com Nestor Wester+44 20 7676 7067nestor.wester@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales 318.00 USD(280.00OLD) Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Howmet: Tripping off the Power - Raising target to $318;Reiterate Outperform We update our outlook for Howmet after incorporating post-Q1 reporting changes andinsights from the company’s participation in Bernstein’s Strategic Decisions Conference (seeour June 2ndreport, “Aerospace & Defense: Twelve CEOs in three days - A&D themes fromBernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference). Close Date15 Jun 2026HWM Close Price (USD)270.44Price Target (USD)318.00Upside/(Downside)18%52-Week Range280.74/169.06SPX7,431.46FYEDecDiv Yield0.2%Market Cap (USD) (M)108,205EV (USD) (M)110,618 Our outlook continues to strengthen for Howmet. In the largest segment, Engine Products,Howmet’s position in power generation, whether for commercial aero, defense, or IGTcontinues to improve. On IGT became an important driver in 2025 - and continues to getbetter. Rising demand from data centers, coupled with higher Howmet market share andhigher pricing, has led us to take out growth CAGR to 25%. In defense, with the war in Iran,aircraft utilization is up, which will increase the aftermarket portion of defense engine work.Commercial aero remains strong, with risks (already small) reduced for Howmet, if we nowsee the Strait of Hormuz opening. In parallel, Howment is in the early stages of transition tohigher value blades on LEAP-1B and the GTF. Fastening Systems continues to see upside. We take our revenue estimates up to reflectthe CAM and Brummer acquisitions. While initiallly dilutive to margins, the company expectsto be able to raise those margins to overall segment levels. Boeing ramps on 737 and 787appear solid, even though A350 continues to lag. We are at the beginning of the higher valuewidebody growth for fasteners. We are above consensus for Engine Products and FasteningSystems, with in line forecasts for Engineered Structures and Forged Wheels. Investment Implications We raise our price target to $318 from $280. We remain Outperform. Our higher price targetis from increased revenues in Engine Products and Fastening Systems. DETAILS OUR UPDATED OUTLOOK Our new estimates Our EPS estimates are increased from $4.76 to $5.20 for 2026, and from $5.81 to $6.11 for 2027. This is from higher revenueestimates at Fastening Systems, Forged Wheels and Engine Products and better margins at Engine Products and ForgedWheels. HWM raised baseline guidance for 2026. It raised baseline revenues by $550mn to $9.575bn–$9.725bn (consensus $9.36bn).Adj. EBITDA margin guidance was lifted 140bps to 31.6%–31.8% (consensus 30.5%), and adjusted EPS was increased by$0.49 to the $4.88–$5.00 range (consensus $4.63). Q2’26 guidance was provided, with revenues expected in the $2.39bn–$2.41bn range (consensus $2.34bn), adj. EBITDA of $760mn– $770mn (consensus $707mn), and adj. EPS of $1.22–$1.24(consensus $1.15). The company closed the Brunner acquisition in Q1. Changes to our model •IGTremains exceptionally strong, with growth accelerating to 39% in the quarter, and more sales expected as new IGTcapacity comes online in 2026. IGT is seeing growth from both OEM demand and a surge in spares. Management notedprogress in customer contract negotiations, with agreements finalized for six of seven customers, up from four previously,improving visibility on investment requirements and future volumes. As Howmet signs additional contracts, we expectrevenue to ramp in the outer years. We see the growth opportunity as better than the doubling of revenues that the companyhas projected over the next three to five years, particularly when factoring in both volume and pricing of IGT blades. •Engine Products:We expect Commercial Aerospace revenue to benefit from the higher-priced new LEAP-1A, LEAP-1B,and GTF-A blades delivered to on-wing engines and increasingly to the aftermarket. We expect segment margins to improvesteadily, driven by a favorable product mix shift toward more sophisticated, higher-margin blades, operating leverage, andyield improvements. •Fastening Systems: Following the CAM acquisition close on April 6, 2026, we expect roughly three quarters of CAM’srevenue to be consolidated in 2026 (i.e., ~$330mn in FY2026). CAM manufactures precision fasteners, fluid fittings, andother highly engineered components for aerospace and defense applications. We estimate that ~75% of CAM’s revenue isderived from commercial aerospace, with the remainder from defense. With the Brunner acquisition completed in February2026, we estimate roughly 10 months of revenue to be consolidated in 2026 (i.e., ~$50mn in FY2026). The acquisitionenhances Howmet’s capabilities in larger-diameter and longer-length fasteners and provides access to the industrial gasturbine market, where such prod