闪迪公司：NAND供应持续紧张，上调ASP预期；目标价上调至1,080美元

NAND supply remains tight, raising ASPestimates; PO to $1,080 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 1,080.00 USD | Price: 919.47 USD Mix shift to data centers; AI inference demand sustainable 17 April 2026 NAND pricing is up massively.A key question we get from investors is whether higherpricing is sustainable. Or, are we in a typical memory cycle and have margins peaked?We see a longer cycle this time given: 1) mix shift to data centers which inherently is aless cyclical end market vs. client/consumer, 2) NAND demand from AI inferencing whichwe view as sustainable in the medium-term, and 3) NAND suppliers being rational andadding supply judiciously. Cloud/datacenter revenue for SNDK has grown from 1% ofthe mix in F1Q24 to about 15% in F2Q26 (Dec qtr, Figure 1) and we see further mixshift to that end market. PO moves to $1080 (from $900) on approximately 10x(unchanged) C27E EPS of $111.32 (prior $90.21). Reit Buy on secular opportunity as AIinference makes NAND more indispensable. Equity Expecting a beat and raise quarteron pricing strength SNDK reports F3Q26 after market close on Thur, April 30th. We model F3Q rev/EPSabove Street and above guidance. We model rev/EPS of $4.89bn/$14.61 vs. Street$4.69bn/$14.60 and guidance ranges (rev: $4.4-4.8bn, EPS $12-14). For F4Q, we modelrev/EPS of $6.67bn/$22.84 vs. Street $6.34bn/$22.47. We expect SNDK to guide F4Qrevenue in the range of $6.4-6.8bn, and EPS $21-23. We now model NAND ASPsequential growth of 70%/30%/13% for F3Q26/F4Q26/F1Q27 vs. prior 63%/20%/10%. Wamsi MohanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3854wamsi.mohan@bofa.com Ruplu BhattacharyaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 0315ruplu.bhattacharya@bofa.com Long-term contracts can reduce the peaks and troughs SNDK is in the process of setting up long-term contracts (both volume and price based)which not only drive better visibility but will help to maintain margins through-cycle. Wemodel GM growing from 51% in F2Q25 to 78.5% in F4Q28 (Figure 2). Given thedynamic nature of the NAND pricing market, we expect these long-term contracts wouldinclude a portion that is fixed and another that is variable. SNDK is offering these longterm agreements to customers across Cloud, Client and Consumer but we expect thelargest uptake to be in the data center business. Aisling GrueningerResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 4273aisling.grueninger@bofa.com Ryan Seungin ChoiResearchAnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0587ryan.choi2@bofa.com What can break the NAND cycle? AI efficiency/compression improvements, like TurboQuant, can reduce the amount ofmemory required. We see 1) increased penetration of AI inference in enterprises whichcan drive the overall demand for NAND higher, and 2) improved ROI of hyperscale capexusing these compression techniques, which can actually cause demand for NAND to rise. BofASecurities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11. Analyst Certification on page 7. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 7.12960261 Timestamp: 17 April 2026 08:02AM EDT iQprofileSMSandisk Corporation Company SectorIT Hardware Company Description Sandisk (SNDK) is is aleading developer, manufacturer andprovider of data storage devices and solutions based onNAND flash technology. SNDK has a growing solid statedrive and storage systems portfolio, and is currently thethird largest enterprise SSD manufacturer. Investment Rationale We rate SNDK Buy. We expect long-term growth in demandfor data storage using NAND, mainly driven by generative AI& eSSD share gains / demand in the data center. Stock Data Average Daily Volume18,070,880 Charts BofA vs. Street estimates Abbreviations RAG: Retrieval-Augmented GenerationKV: Key-ValueAI: Artificial IntelligenceNAND: Not And, a type of flash memoryEB: ExabytesHBM: High Bandwidth MemoryDRAM: Dynamic Random Access MemorySSD: Solid State DrivesROI: Return-on-InvestmentASP: Average Sell Price Model Price objective basis & risk Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) Our PO of $1080 is based on approximately 10x C27E EPS of $111.32 which is in linewith SNDK's global memory peers' average due to similar profitability. Upside risks: 1) we are earlier than expected in the NAND upcycle, 2) stronger thanexpected expansion in the NAND market on sales of AI enabled consumer products, 3)faster than expected eSSD market share gains, and 4) faster than expected recovery inNAND pricing. Downside risks: 1) sharp drop in NAND prices due to oversupply, 2) Competition and overexpansion from Chinese suppliers such as YMTC, 3) slower than expected adoption of AIenabled consumer products, and 4) share loss in eSSD market. Analyst Certification I, Wamsi Mohan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research reporta