闪迪：业绩预期和股价能涨多高？上调预期及目标价至1250美元，乐观情景下可达3000美元

Sandisk: How high can estimates and the stock go? Raisingestimates and TP to $1,250, with blue-sky scenario at $3000 With the backdrop of accelerating NAND price hikes and worries around Turboquant andpeak earnings, where to from here? SNDK reports FQ3’26 on April 30th. Turboquant and how it impacts NAND demand.As explained in our recent note (seehere), Turboquant fears were overdone. We go into more detail here on potential impactfrom Turboquant, which can have some limited impact on NAND but potentially more onDRAM and zero impact on HDD. Overall though we are believers in Jevons paradox and thatoverall cheaper and more efficient compute will generally drive demand for more compute(and thus more memory and storage). We raise SNDK estimates again significantly on better than expected NAND prices.As explained in our recent MEMORY TRACKER (March), memory prices continue to surpriseto the upside with NAND showing the strongest increases and continued acceleration. Webump up ourFY27 non-GAAP EPS to $144 and $224 in our base case and bull caserespectivelyon stronger NAND ASP. For FQ3’26 (March quarter) we are now at $14.18 vs. consensus at $13.99 andguidance of $12-14 (non-GAAP EPS).The main opportunity for the beat is the ASP whichwe have at +55% and see further upside to this number with our bull case at $17.47, whichassumes NAND ASP up 75% (Micron’s Feb qtr had NAND prices up high 70s%). More importantly for the FQ4’26 guide we are at $25.30 (with a +40% QoQ ASPmove) vs. street at $18.78 (non-GAAP EPS).Plugging in a more aggressive ASP moveof 75% in each FQ3 and FQ4 gets us to $40.53 non-GAAP EPS for FQ4’26 which wouldtranslate into $224 for FY27 showing just how much potential there is for a strong guide.While some data points to ASPs up as much as 100% QoQ, we doubt that would apply tothe entire volume for the quarter. What is the right multiple?Analyzing previous cycles (pre WDC acquisition in 2016),SNDK typically trades 10-13x peak cycle EPS (on 2 year forward estimates). Currently,SNDK is trading at 9.0x consensus, 5.4x and 3.5x on our base and bull cases (respectivelyall on FY27 EPS). This suggests that the market does not believe the higher side of ourestimates are reasonable and/or that there will be an imminent collapse in NAND priceswith future upcycles to never return to such levels (the one time super-cycle theory). Increasing TP to $1,250, with blue-sky scenario at $3,000.We think the market issignificantly undervaluing earnings power and sustainability of this cycle. Our base-casevaluation applies 11x through-cycle earnings, defined as the average of FY26-29 Bern.base-case EPS of $114, and corresponds to 8.7x FY27 base-case EPS of $144, in-linewith the current multiple on consensus and a level we view as conservative relative tohistorical peak-cycle multiples. Our $1,250 TP is also just 5.5x our bull-case FY27 EPS of$224. Our blue-sky scenario applies 13x (similar to previous peak cycle multiples) on ourbull case FY27 EPS to imply $3,000, highlighting significant asymmetric upside potential.We therefore,reiterate Outperform (top short-term pick). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We value SanDisk at 11x our FY26-29 average EPS, or 8.7x FY27 EPS which gives our target price of $1,250. We value Seagate at 21x our FY28 EPS of $29.5, implying $620 per share. We believe Seagate's improving fundamentals andHAMR leadership easily justifies a 21x P/E, and arguably much higher. Our TP for WDC is $340, which is 20x our FY28 EPS. PE of 20x is inline to lower than recent market multiple and arguablyconservative given its 5 year EPS CAGR of 46% (FY25-30E) Table Of Contents Part I: TurboQuant and How does it affect NAND, DRAM and HDD?....................................................................................................................3Part II: Increasing estimates on further NAND price acceleration..........................................................................................................................5Part III: What is the right multiple?.................................................................................................................................................................................... 7Part IV: How high can SNDK go?.................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 DETAILS PART I: TURBOQUANT AND HOW DOES IT AFFECT NAND, DRAM AND HDD? As explained in our recent note (see here), Turboquant fears were overdone.We go into more detail here on potentialimpact from Turboquant, which can have some limited impact on NAND but potentially more on DRAM and no impact on HDD.Overall though we are believers in Jevon’s paradox and that overall cheaper and more efficient compute will generally drivedemand for more compute (and thus more memory and storage).