2026年经济展望与市场策略：分化之路
November2025 SeparatePaths 2026economicoutlookandmarketstrategy DBSEconomicsOutlookand Market Strategy 2026Separate Paths Group Research November2025 Summary Group ResearchEconomics & Strategy •A year that began with unprecedented fearabout global trade and multilateral rules-based order is ending with guarded relief. Weexpect the world to move on even as the USturns inward. Taimur BAIG, Ph.D.Chief EconomistGlobaltaimurbaig@dbs.com Wei Liang CHANGFX & Credit StrategistGlobalweiliangchang@dbs.com Eugene LEOWSenior Rates StrategistG3 & Asiaeugeneleow@dbs.com •We expect Asia and Asean growth to be onlymarginally lower in 2026. Tieying MA, CFASenior EconomistJapan, South Korea, Taiwanmatieying@dbs.com Nathan CHOW Senior EconomistChina, Hong Kong SARnathanchow@dbs.com •Food and fuel inflation are not sources ofworry. Han Teng CHUA, CFASenior EconomistAseanhantengchua@dbs.com Radhika RAO Senior EconomistEurozone, India, Indonesiaradhikarao@dbs.com •Fiscal and monetary issues are worrisomelargely with respect to the US. Mo JI, Ph.D.Chief EconomistChina/HK SARmoji@dbs.com Daisy SHARMAAnalystData Analyticsdaisy@dbs.com •Having faced numerous stress tests since thepandemic… Samuel TSESenior EconomistChina, Hong Kong SARsamueltse@dbs.com Byron LAM EconomistHong Kongbyronlamfc@dbs.com •…governments and firms appear in bettershape to deal with geoeconomic disruption Kee Yan YEOEquity AnalystASEANkeeyan@dbs.com Violet LEE AssociatePublicationsvioletleeyh@dbs.com Moxy Yuhua YINGEquity AnalystHong Kong/Chinamoxyying@dbs.com Eun Young LEEEquity Analysteunyoung@dbs.com Philip WEESenior FX StrategistGlobalphilipwee@dbs.com Table of Contents Key charts................................................................................................................................................3Overview: Separate Paths.......................................................................................................................4US: No recession, but the best is behind ...............................................................................................5Eurozone: Steadying ship........................................................................................................................7Japan: Inside Takaichinomics..................................................................................................................8G3 Rates: Towards neutral......................................................................................................................9Currencies: A “lame duck” USD ............................................................................................................10Credit: Between tariffs and high valuations ........................................................................................11Asean Equities: Local Catalysts .............................................................................................................12China/HK SAR equities: Riding High......................................................................................................13Commodities, oil: Moderate price dynamic .........................................................................................14Commodities, metals: Divergent performance ....................................................................................15China: Quality-driven growth................................................................................................................16Hong Kong SAR: Dual-speed recovery ..................................................................................................17India: Domestic anchor .........................................................................................................................18Indonesia: Growth supportive policy....................................................................................................19Malaysia: Continuing Ekonomi Madani policies...................................................................................20Philippines: Ironing out hurdles............................................................................................................21Singapore: Measured resilience ...........................................................................................................22South Korea: Returning to normalcy ....................................................................................................23Taiwan: Betting on AI............................................................................................................................24Thailand: Elections and economic fragilities ........................................................................................25Vietnam: Rising to external challenges.................................................................................................26Growth, Inflation & Currencies forecasts ...............................................................