2025全球可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 生产原料评估深度报告：展望至2050年 (英文版)

Outlook to 2050 September2025 In this global assessment of feedstock availabilityandSAF production potential,around400 MtofSAFis forecast to be possibleto producein2050.Althoughthis would beamajorachievement, itis100 Mt of SAFshort ofwhatwillbe needed in 2050.Sustainablebiomassfeedstocks are largely available,thoughaccesscan belimited, underlining the need for e-SAF.Still, themajor barrier to reachingthe 500 Mtneeded in 2050isthe pace of technology rollout. Contents Executive summary........................................................................................................................................................................5About...................................................................................................................................................................................................6IATA..........................................................................................................................................................................................................6Worley Consulting...............................................................................................................................................................................61Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................71.1The aim and scope of the study......................................................................................................................................71.2Background............................................................................................................................................................................72Methodology........................................................................................................................................................................83Global SAF feedstock assessment...............................................................................................................................93.1Biomass feedstock..............................................................................................................................................................93.2PtL feedstocks....................................................................................................................................................................113.3Potential feedstocks excluded from the study........................................................................................................124SAF technology overview..............................................................................................................................................124.1Technology assessment..................................................................................................................................................134.2Indicative cost comparison by production route....................................................................................................164.3Technology rollout rates..................................................................................................................................................165The role of policies...........................................................................................................................................................186Global feedstock availability and SAF production outlook................................................................................206.1Biomass feedstock for SAF production.....................................................................................................................206.2Biogenic CO2for PtL production...................................................................................................................................226.3Global SAF production potential in 2030...................................................................................................................236.4Global SAF production potential in 2050...................................................................................................................246.5Enablers to reach SAF production potential.............................................................................................................277Regional feedstock availability and SAF blueprints.............................................................................................287.1Central Asia..........................................................................................................................................................................287.2East Asia & Pacific..............................................................................................................................................................317.3Europe.......................................