东盟2050可持续航空燃料展望报告：推动东盟地区以农业废弃物生产可持续航空燃料

ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook Report (Final) → The Power of Commitment Project Lead: GHDProject Sponsor: CTIFBeneficiary: ASEAN SecretariatKnowledge Partner: Boeing 12 January, 2026 Executive summary Background Acknowledgement GHD acknowledges and extends our gratitude towardsall stakeholders for their invaluable support in thedevelopment and completion of this ASEAN 2050 SAFOutlook Report, including the Project Sponsor CTIFimplemented by Cowater International (Cowater) inassociation with the Institute of Public Administrators ofCanada (IPAC) under Global Affairs Canada (GAC). CTIF and Cowater’s objective is to foster thedevelopment and deployment of Sustainable AviationFuels (SAFs) using waste feedstocks across ASEANMember States. The initiative focuses on creating and disseminatingknowledge products to guide ASEAN’s strategiccommitments to sustainable agriculture and forestry,net-zero carbon emissions in aviation, renewable energytargets, and promoting a circular economy, aiming toyield significant social benefits such as job creation,gender equality, and health improvements, particularlyfor women and children affected by air pollution. We express our sincere thanks to the ASEANSecretariat, our Beneficiary, for their continuedcollaboration and trust. We also express our appreciation to Boeing as ourKnowledge Partner for their expertise and insights thathave further enhanced the delivery and content of theASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook Report. In April 2025, the initiative first phase Techno-EconomicAssessment Report was released including key insightsand findings from with a number of workstreams includingthe feedstock assessment, technology selection, carbonintensity, feedstock and product logistics, environmentaland social aspects, institutional framework, and afinancial assessment. The public report release can beaccessed here. Further acknowledgement of key individual teammembers is also included within Section 6. This report includes the assessment and key findingsreleased from the initiative's second phase focusing on afurther deep dive into ASEAN SAF regional supply chainsand a technology pathway financial assessment. ASEAN Regional Supply ChainAssessment Key Findings This assessment has considered agricultural biomasswaste and sustainable forestry biomass, which includedwaste feedstock such as cassava, coconut, corn, oilpalm fruit, pineapple, rice, sugarcane, and sustainableroundwood production for use in the production ofSAF. Based on the prior assessment, the most abundantidentified agricultural feedstock types and biomasswastes were considered as potential feedstocks for theSAF development in this assessment. Purpose The Canadian Trade and Investment Facility forDevelopment (CTIF) has engaged GHD for an expandedscope to provide a ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook Reportfocused on an ASEAN SAF regional supply chainassessment, as well as a technology pathway financialassessment. This also includes development ofassociated knowledge sharing products and knowledgesharing activities to share the pertinent learnings, criticalinsights and recommendations from the ASEAN 2050SAF Outlook Report to support an increase in SAFproduction, project deployment and decarbonisation ofthe aviation sector. The potential SAF supply outlook for the Milestone Yearswas derived from the aggregated potential biomasssupply for each target country for the respective timehorizon. This outlook considered agricultural and forestryfeedstocks and changes to production, feedstockconversion to biomass waste, and biomass wasteconversion ratio to SAF. The purpose of this report is to cover a further expandedassessment of the previously completed regional supplychain and financial assessments included within theTechno-Economic Assessment Report released in April2025, as per Section 2. The regional SAF demand outlook for the MilestoneYears was derived from the aggregated potential demandof each Target Country (and Japan, Singapore, and SouthKorea) for the respective time horizon. This assessmentconsidered the jet fuel consumption with the air trafficgrowth and the percentage SAF uptake. −The expanded ASEAN regional supply chainassessment for 2030, 2040, and 2050 (noted as“Milestone Years”) examines potential SAF demandand supply scenarios across Cambodia, Indonesia,Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, andVietnam (noted as “Target Countries”), as well asJapan, Singapore, and South Korea. This assessmentseeks to identify the potential SAF exporters andimporters within the region and provides a high-leveloverview of the region’s capacity to meet its aviationdecarbonisation targets with SAF blending. Future dynamics of supply and demand for SAF in theregion suggests: −Rapidly growing demand in Southeast Asia:Basedon potential uptake of SAF blend rates, the forecastSAF demand from the Target Countries was projectedto grow sharply from 15,000 bpd in 2030 to 142,000bpd in 2040 and to over 700,000 bpd by 2050.Indonesia, Malaysia, and