四季基金 季节性思考 2026/02

-in pursuit of real returns- Seasonal Reflections War games Dear reader, Following a volatile April (not just in terms of the weather), we are delighted to present the spring Spring is a wonderful season in this part of the world. Itisas though life is reawakening after the slumber of winter, with floraand fauna vying with one another to unleashtheirburgeoningenergy.The still gentle light of March with its lingering long Table of contents(Red passagesare active web links andall translations are mine): -The Unbearable Lightness of Financial Markets..................................................p. 2-Completely detached….………………………………………………………….………….......p.5-Iran War & Oil Crisis….............................................................................................p.9-The case for renewed stagflation……………………………………………………………p.14-IASF Allocation Review……..………………….............................................................p.20-Portfolio Management Review: The Shipping Sector..........................................p. 23 Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- The views, analyses and forecasts contained in this document arebased on current market conditions and reflect the author’s opinion. Allinformationhas been compiled from sources believed to be reliable.However,no assurance or guarantee is given as to its accuracy orcompleteness.Seasonal Reflectionsis published for registered subscribers The Unbearable Lightness of Financial Markets This spring-infusedlightnessalsoseemsto have taken hold ofglobalfinancial markets.Amidthe war in Iran, andtherecentceasefirenotwithstanding, global energy and commodityflowsas of April 14are seriously disrupted and It is almostas if nothing had happened… Bloombergheadlined this on 14 Aprilwith “FOMO for stocks”, where FOMO standsforFear Of Missing Out,which of coursein this “The recovery has plenty of investorsshaking their heads in disbelief. The war has drivenup costs for many companies and consumers, and Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- Indeed,a glance at financial markets gives no hint of the recent geopolitical and macroeconomicupheavals:“In a bull market that feels never-ending, investors have been emboldened and rewarded forignoring risk and expensive valuations. As the label implies, during the “Everything Bubble,” almost Well, I guessthere may be readers whoupon reading this introductionwill think:“Ah, there’sanotherpermabear…”–After all, we are all shaped by theEfficient Market Hypothesis(EMH), whichstipulatesthat financial market prices always reflect all available information on fundamentaldevelopments.As a consequence, everfewer investorsarewilling to investbenchmarkunconstrained At a time when fundamental analysis and the decision-making underpinned by itstilldominatedthe behaviour of market participants,the EMHmade perfect sense. But that was a long time ago,andwe now find ourselves in a situation where the tail is wagging the dog–that is, where the market’s pricesignals areincreasinglybeing used to draw conclusions about the fundamental situation. Thus, onApril But is that realistic?–Doesthe ‘DatedBrent’ price, which reflects the actual tradedprices for physical barrels with delivery in 10days to 1 month,not showus that the Brent Brent Future (white) vsDated Brent, Bloomberg, 14APR2026 Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- This canhardly come as a surprise tothefundamentally-oriented observer, given that thewar in Iran and theblockade ofthe Strait ofHormuzhasbeen ongoing for 7 weeks, with theresultthat approximately 10–12% of daily oilproductionis no longer available to global Followingthe Covid experience,the world must acknowledgethat the global oil and energysupply system also relies on just-in-time delivery. It should therefore come as no surprise that theclosure of the Strait of Hormuz is viewed bymostenergysector analysts as the worst-case scenario for Of course not. Instead, I would like to draw on an image thathas been usedfrequently inSeasonalReflections, namely the comparison of financialand particularly equity markets with a casino. Here,fundamental analysis,with the aim of making an investment that is incorrectly (i.e. too lowly) valued by The unbearable lightness of financial marketsis reflectedin their claim to an efficient pricingsystem, which is increasingly influenced by factors thathavelittle to do with the actual fundamentalstate of the global economy and its participants, but are instead increasingly shaped by liquidity, So,do financial markets still carry weight and significance,or is price formation simplynarrative-driven and merely a plaything for(political)insiders,multi-billionaires,aggressive Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- Completely detached Iattempt toanswerthisquestion by noting that on April14US stock markets once again recordeda sharp rise, which not only made up for the losses seen up to the end of Mar