洞察报告：首席经济学家展望

I N S I G H TR E P O R TM A Y2 0 2 6 Contents Executive summary4 1 A shifting economic outlook5 Volatility increasesAI sentiment is cooling77 2 Disruption and its implications9 Industry impactsRegional impacts1011 3 Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlookRegional growth and policy expectationsGlobal business environment131320 Contributors21 Endnotes24 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. May 2026Chief Economists’Outlook This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well asconsultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the publicand private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for theNew Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economicenvironment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers andbusiness leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the globaleconomy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 6 April to 17 April 2026. Executive summary In the May 2026 edition of the Chief Economists’Outlook, sentiment among surveyed chiefeconomists regarding global economic prospectshas deteriorated. In the survey, 89% of respondentsanticipate global growth over the next 12 months toweaken, with 21% expecting a significantly weakeroutlook. The escalation of conflict in the MiddleEast, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,has disrupted global supply chains, elevated pricesfor affected goods and significantly increaseduncertainty and volatility. and breadth of productivity gains are moderating,with broader benefits expected to take longer tomaterialize than previous forecasts by the community. Regional outlooks remain divergent. The US andIndia are expected to maintain moderate to stronggrowth, supported by investment and consumption,but face inflationary pressures. China’s outlook hasimproved, while Europe’s growth prospects haveweakened amid energy shocks and stagflation risks.South-East Asia shows resilience but is exposed toenergy and food import vulnerabilities. The MiddleEast and North Africa face sharp deterioration ingrowth and employment, while the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America holds steady. Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify,with 94% of surveyed chief economists anticipatinghigher global inflation in the coming year. Energyand food prices are identified as primary drivers,with supply shocks projected to have lastingeffects. While 58% of respondents do not see aglobal recession as imminent, there are limitedexpectations of increased economic resilience in theshort term. Volatility is expected to rise, with mostchief economists anticipating fluctuations in debtand equity markets. Multinational companies are reassessing strategiesin response to the changed risk landscape. TheUS, India and South-East Asia are seen as themost attractive business environments, drivenby scale, flexibility and supply-chain positioning.Europe remains competitive due to regulatorypredictability and consumer demand, while China’sintense competition and slim margins temper itsappeal. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle Eastand North Africa are less attractive for multinationalsat present, reflecting infrastructure constraints andgeopolitical risks. Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a key driver ofoptimism, with over 90% of chief economistssurveyed expecting increased adoption in the nextyear. However, expectations regarding the speed A shiftingeconomic outlook In the May 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook, themood has darkened considerably. Of the chiefeconomists surveyed, 89% anticipate globalgrowth over the next 12 months to weaken, with21% expecting a significantly weaker outlook.The conflict in the Middle East and the ongoingdisruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have erasedthe cautious optimism of the beginning of the year, as supply shortages of fuel, fertilizer and otheressential goods ripple through the global economy.Against a backdrop of geoeconomic confrontationand deep uncertainty, the global businessenvironment is adjusting to new realities. Artificialintelligence (AI) adoption continues to proceedunevenly, with significant opportunities and risksemerging in the process. ongoing tensions in the Middle East casting a longshadow over the second half of the year.2Globalforeign direct investment