首席经济学家展望洞察报告 2025年9月

I N S I G H TR E P O R TS E P T E M B E R2 0 2 5 Contents Executive summary4 1 Adapting to uncertaintyWeak growth amid a disruptive new realityRegional divergence557 2 Towards a new global economic order12 3 Diverging pathways: growth in a fragmented global economy19 Contributors25 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. September 2025Chief Economists’Outlook This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as wellas consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from boththe public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’sCentre for the New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environmentand identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders inresponse to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomicand geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 30 July to 19 August 2025. Executive summary The global economy is undergoing a period ofprofound transformation, marked by persistentshort-term disruption and heightened uncertaintyas well as long-term structural change. The WorldEconomic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’Outlook, drawing on a survey of leading chiefeconomists, paints a picture of resilience amidturbulence, but with growth prospects that remainsubdued and risks skewed to the downside. In total,72% of chief economists expect global economicconditions to weaken in the year ahead. Trade and global value chains are experiencingtheir most significant disruption in generations,with long-term fragmentation expected to cementnew patterns of economic activity. The riseof AI is driving a structural shift in technologyand innovation, as well as reshaping energydemand and fuelling geopolitical competitionover high-tech inputs. Natural resources, energyand the environment are under strain, while theweakening of global economic institutions mayexacerbate broader economic vulnerabilities. Geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating,with trade tensions at its heart. The US hasimposed sweeping tariffs on a large number ofeconomies, prompting a realignment of supplychains and a recalibration of global investmentflows. The dollar’s sharp depreciation has grantedemerging economies greater monetary flexibility,but also amplified the domestic impact of tariffs.Meanwhile, the rapid pace of artificial intelligence(AI) development is adding another layer ofuncertainty, with most chief economists expectingthe technology to become commercially disruptivewithin the next year, while views on labour marketimpacts remain divided. The chief economists surveyed point to advancedeconomies’ reliance on technology and humancapital, with frontier innovation and skillscompetition driving productivity. Developingeconomies, by contrast, depend relatively more onaccess to capital and natural resources, even astechnology and human capital remain important. Respondents pointed to the importance ofenabling factors such as trade openness,human capital development and innovationecosystems, but also highlighted that growthis likely to be inhibited by factors includingpolitical instability, weak institutions and tradebarriers. The reduction in development aid andfunding for global institutions is expected toexacerbate health, migration, security and climaterisks. These factors carry different weights fordeveloping and advanced economies, and aseconomies adapt to both short- and long-termshifts, growth pathways are likely to diverge. Regional divergence is increasingly pronounced. TheUS outlook remains subdued, against a backdrop ofmajor trade policy shifts and elevated inflation risks.Europe’s recovery is fragile but improving, buoyedby steady employment and subdued inflation.China’s growth remains relatively strong, thoughmomentum is slowing and deflationary risks persist.East Asia and the Pacific faces mounting tradeheadwinds, while Latin America and the Caribbeancontinues to make modest progress amid stabilizinginflation. The Middle East and North Africa standsout for their robust growth prospects, driven byresource expansion and diversification, while Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia face a mixed outlookamid new tariff pressures and policy adjustments. The chief economists point to substantialuntapped growth potential in developing regions,notably Sub-Saharan A