2026年1月首席经济学家展望洞察报告

I N S I G H TR E P O R TJ A N U A R Y2 0 2 6 Contents Executive summary4 1 Economic risks outlook5 Asset valuationsDebt and spending68 2 Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook13 Trade and investment outlookRegional growth and policy expectations1315 3 AI adoption outlookRegional adoptionIndustry adoptionFirm-level adoption21212224 Contributors26 Endnotes29 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. January 2026Chief Economists’Outlook This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well asconsultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the publicand private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for theNew Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economicenvironment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers andbusiness leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the globaleconomy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 19 Novemberto 3 December 2025. Executive summary With 53% of chief economists expecting globaleconomic conditions to weaken, 28% expectingno change and 19% expecting a stronger economy,the prospects for the global economy tilt towardsthe negative in the year ahead, albeit with improvedsentiment compared to last year’s outlook. access to essential technologies and resources. Theoutlook for global trade is mixed, with some regionspositioned to benefit from emerging opportunitieswhile others face challenges from protectionistmeasures and policy uncertainty. Foreign directinvestment is also being redirected in response tothese developments, resulting in varied prospects formajor economies, according to chief economists. Drawing on a survey and dialogue with leadingchief economists, the World Economic Forum’s latestChief Economists’ Outlook identifies downside risksin the form of inflated asset values, building debtpressures and intensifying geopolitical tensions,which are shifting trade and investment patterns.In the medium term, the integration of artificialintelligence (AI) remains a key source of bothopportunities and risks for the global economy. The rapid adoption of AI stands out as both asource of optimism and a catalyst for disruption.While the potential for significant productivityimprovements is widely acknowledged, the paceand distribution of these benefits are expected tovary considerably across regions, industries andfirm sizes. The impact on employment remainsuncertain, with divergent views on the long termand modest disruption predicted in the short term. In a volatile environment, financial markets havemaintained an upward trend, sparking debateabout the sustainability of current valuations.Some economists have highlighted risks associatedwith asset bubbles and the possibility of abruptcorrections, while others point out the underlyingprofitability and real investment that distinguishthese firms from previous speculative episodes.Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold haveregained appeal in an uncertain environment,while the trajectory of the US dollar remainsa key question for global investors. Regional growth trajectories reflect the complexinteraction of these forces. The US is experiencinga surge in investment in AI and data centreinfrastructure, fuelling hopes for a productivityrevival even as questions persist about the scopeand durability of these gains. China is managinga delicate balance between external demand anddomestic pressures, leveraging technologicalinnovation to maintain momentum. Europe facesa more subdued outlook, weighed down bydemographic trends and the costs associatedwith conflict and fragmented regulatory frameworks,while regions such as South Asia and East Asia andthe Pacific remain relative bright spots, supportedby reform and integration. Other regions, suchas Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, aregrappling with the dual challenges of debt andthe need for structural transformation. The issue of debt, both public and private,has moved to the forefront as governments andcorporations contend with the legacy of prolongedborrowing and managing elevated debt levels,prompting a reassessment of fiscal approaches.Areas such as defence, digital infrastructure andenergy are expected to command larger sharesof public budgets, reflecting the demands of amore unpredictable w