2022年首席经济学家展望报告

WORLDECONOMICFORUMCentrefortheNew Economy andSocietyChiefEconomistsOutlookMay2022 Chief Economists OutiookDisclaimerThis document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribufion to aproject, insight area or interaction, The findings, interpretations and oondlusionseprosseod heroin are aroeut of a colaborative procose faciltated and endoraodby the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarly represent theviews of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners orothor stakoholdors.@ 2022 World Economic Forum. AlI rights reserved. No part of this pubication mayBujidocojoud Bupnpu suow Aue (q Jo wuo, Aue u pourusueli o paorpoudol oqand rocording, or by any informofion storage and retrieval system. Chief Economists OutlookMay 2022This quarterly briefing builds on the latestpolicy developments and research as well asconsultations and surveys with leadingChief Economists from both the public andprivate sectors, organized by the WorldEconomic Forum's Centre for the NewEconomy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contoursof the current economic environment andidentify priorities for further action by policymakers and business leaders in responseto the compounding shocks to the globaleconomy from the COVID-19 pandemic andgeopolitical events. Oriet Economicts OutockContents1. Context: a perfect storm52. Recovery disrupted63. Six expectations for the future of the economy00Higher inflation alongside lower real wages globally8Food insecurity in developing economies9More localization, diversification and politicization of supply chains.11Greater rollback of globalization in goods, labour and technology than services12Sanctions effective in dampening the economic outlook for Russia12Continued dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency144. Navigating complexity: choices and trade-offs for policy-makers15Balancing the risks of inflation and contraction16Balancing the risks of food, fuel and inequality crisis with higherdebt and the risk of default16Balancing the risks of continued fossil fuel use against the shift to green energy17Balancing national priorities with long-term, global goals18References19Contributors22Acknowledgements23Cover: Unsplash/Sean Benesh Chief Economists Outiook1. Context: a perfect stormThe May 2022 Chief Economists Outiookcapital fight and currency depreciationcomes out amid extremely high uncertaintyin low- andl middle-income countries areabout geopolitical developments, theon the rise as monetary policy in majortrajectory of the global economy and theeconomies is tightenednext steps for economic policy. Instead ofentering a post-COVID recovery phase,While the effects on overall economic activityeconomies are experiencing additionalare currently expected to be less severe thanshocks, first and foremost from the warthose experienced in the wake of the firstin Ukraine and associated geopoliticalCOVD lockdown, the combined impact ofrepercussions, but also from new outbreaksthese shocks means a continued focus onof COVID-19 and lockdowns in mejormanaging crises, a high risk of secondaryindustrial centres.shocks, and a diversion from investmentin increasing productivity, social mobiity,Beyond the immediate humanitarian impactsustainability, stability and resilience.of the conflict and the ongoing healtrconsequences of the pandemic, this hasGeopolitical uncertainty and polarizationmeant downward revisions to growthmay also contribute to driving the globalprospects and exacerbated inflationaryeconomy deeper into fragmentation, withpressures from disruptions to commoditieslonger-term consequences for trade,and food supplies. Oil and gas priceprices and Iving standards. In combination,shocks are complicating the balancethese shifts have resulted in the globalbetween energy security and the transitioneconomy entering a new phase of highto greener energy sources, while rising foodvolatility with fewer mechanisms forand commodity prices are threatening livesglobal coordination and collaboration,and affecting the cost of living across thecompounding the effects on the mostworld. Concerns over debt sustainability.vulnerable economies ancl individuals.d on 2 Msy 2022. Eding was concluded on 17 Mey 2022. Chief Economists Outiook2. Recovery - disruptedAt the beginning of 2022, the consensusForecasts were more subdued forforecast was for the largest economies toIow- andl middle-income countries,have returned to pre-COVID growth pathswith growth predicted still to be 5.5%by the end of the year, led by China, Europebelow trend in 2024 (excluding China)."and the US. The OECD had forecast globalRisks to clebt stability were expectedgrowth at 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.2from the spillover effects of advanced-Inflation was running high across advancedeconomy monetary policy action toeconomies but was expected to wane overcombat inflation. A divided recoverythe course of 2022 as supply bottleneckswas becoming apparent as the mostwere resolved, excess dem