北美一级货运铁路性能——2026年第一季度

Introduction Oliver Wyman’s quarterly North American Freight Rail Performancereport compiles and analyzes publicly available data from the seven Data sources include the US Surface Transportation Board (STB),the Association of American Railroads (AAR), the Federal Railroad •BNSF Railway (BNSF)•Canadian National Railway (CN)•Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC)•CSX Transportation (CSX)•Ferromex (FXE) All dollar figures are US dollars. Financial figures for CN, CPKC,and FXE are converted to US dollars using the exchange rate at US railroads experienced revenue growth Western carriers saw the largest gains, while the Canadian railroads and FXE had declining revenues The overall revenue growth rate remains slow CPKC’s and FXE’s revenue growth continues to outpace that of Class I peers In each region, one carrier increased volume while the other saw a decline UP, NS, and BNSF saw the largest improvements in freight revenue per unitThe remaining Class I railroads experienced declines Intermodal volume was mixed, but carloads were generally up CN, BNSF, and FXE grew both types of traffic. NS and UP carload gains could not make up for losses in intermodal Merchandise traffic was strong; coal volume was more muted Only NS and UP were able to grew coal volumes Revenue ton-miles were up across the industry… Grain and fertilizers buoyed UP, CN, and CPKC, with coal further driving UP RTMs, and intermodal contributing to CSX growth …But revenue per RTMs was generally lower than last year This suggests the traffic mix continues to shift toward lower margin bulk commodities, while pricing was relatively weak Declining revenue per RTMs has been the general trend for the past two years CSX, UP, and BNSF reduced their operating ratios CSX was able to improve on operating expenses, BNSF grew revenues while keeping costs down, and UP’s OR continues to hoveraround 60% Most Class Is are experiencing an uptick in operating ratios since last year And CSX appears to be recovering from operational disruptions Improvements in expenses per RTM have generally been unable to offset poor Railroads continue to trim their workforce With slower volume growth, the focus remains on increasing efficiency gains. Only FXE grew its workforce CN, CPKC, and UP have trimmed employees as RTMs have grown CSX has added employees with RTMs remaining flat Employee productivity continues to improve across the industry CN, CSX, and UP saw the largest improvements Operating income was mixed CSX and the western railroads increased income, while the Canadian railroads, NS, and FXE saw a decline in operating income Two-year trend on operating income is increasingly positive While still negative since 2024, CSX operating income is on an upward trajectory, while NS’s has recently been declining after recoveryfrom E. Palestine The western railroads have been accelerating capital expenditures CN and CPKC have slightly grown capex, CSX has remained flat, while NS and FXE capex has been declining Only CN has improved free cash flow over the past four quarters Returns on invested capital were fairly flat across the industry UP improved slightly, while NS and FXE had the weakest performance Return on invested capital (4-quarter rolling average-based):PercentQ1 2026 compared to Q1 2025 After seeing growth on the heels of the merger announcement, railroad stockperformance has been heavily impacted by increasing fuel prices Dwell improved across almost all railroads, while velocity was mostly down Employee injury and equipment incident rates improved across most railroads CPKC’s equipment incident rate remains lower than peers The industry continues to improve its safety record CN, NS, and CPKC have consistently improved their injury rate the most, while UP and NS have improved their equipment incidentrates the most Employee injuries Q1 2023 to Q1 2026Q1 2019 to Q1 2026 For more information, please contact Eric HellerDirectoreric.heller@oliverwyman.com Jason KuehnVice Presidentjason.kuehn@oliverwyman.com Yury GorbunovDirectoryury.gorbunov@oliverwyman.com Oliver Wyman, a Marsh (NYSE: MRSH) business, is a management consulting firm driven by deep industry insight, bold innovation, and a collaborative approach that cutsthrough complexity to help organizations navigate their most defining transformative moments. Marsh is a global leader in risk, reinsurance and capital, people andinvestments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130 countries. With annual revenue of $27 billion and more than 95,000 colleagues, Marsh helps build theconfidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visitoliverwyman.com, or follow us onLinkedInandX. India, Middle East & Africa+971 (0) 4 425 7000 Europe+44 20 7333 8333 Asia Pacific+65 6510 9700 AUTHOR(S) Eric HellerDirectoreric.heller@oliverwyman.com Yury GorbunovDirectoryury.gorbunov@oliverwyman.com Jason KuehnVice Presidentjason.kuehn@oliver