北美一级货运铁路性能——2025年第三季度

Q3 2025 Financial and Operations Review A business of Marsh McLennanA business of Marsh McLennan INTRODUCTION Oliver Wyman’s quarterly North American Freight Rail Performance reportcompiles and analyzes publicly available data from the seven largest NorthAmerican railroads: •BNSF Railway (BNSF)•Canadian National Railway (CN)•Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC)•CSX Transportation (CSX)•Ferromex (FXE)•Norfolk Southern Railway (NS)•Union Pacific Railroad (UP) Data sources include the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), the Associationof American Railroads (AAR), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), industryfinancial reports, and public company information All dollar figures are US dollars. Financial figures for CN, CPKC, and FXE areconverted to US dollars using the exchange rate at the end of the latest quarter CONTENTS(2/2) Total employees for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202417Total employment count and RTMs Q3 2018 to Q3 202518RTMs per employee for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202419Operating income for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 and peak quarter20Operating income two-year trend with CQGR for Q3 2023 to Q3 202521Year-to-date capital expenditures for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202422Year-to-date free cash flow for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202423Return on invested capital for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202424Railroad stock price performance three-year index25Average dwell time and velocity for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 202426 REVENUE GROWTH WAS AROUND 3% OR LESS ACROSS THE CLASS I RAIL INDUSTRY © Oliver Wyman DESPITE A SOLID THIRD QUARTER, THE OVERALL REVENUE GROWTH RATE REMAINS SLOWCPKC and FXE revenue growth has continued to outpace that of their Class I peers © Oliver Wyman MOST OF THE INDUSTRY SAW LIMITED VOLUME GROWTH Canadian railroads exhibited higher growth due to favorable comparisonswith Q32024, which sawlabordisputes © Oliver Wyman NS, UP, AND BNSF EACH SAW IMPROVED REVENUE PER UNIT © Oliver Wyman INTERMODAL VOLUMES GENERALLY ROSE, WHILE CARLOAD TRAFFIC WAS A MIXED BAGInternational traffic continues to drive intermodal growth © Oliver Wyman NS SAW THE LARGEST MERCHANDISE VOLUME GROWTH IN THE INDUSTRYUP saw continued coal growth from greater electricity demand and higher natural gas prices, while export coal volumes fell for NS and CSX © Oliver Wyman REVENUE TON-MILES WERE UP ACROSS THE INDUSTRY… …HOWEVER, REVENUE PER RTM WAS CONSISTENTLY LOWER THAN LAST YEARThis suggests the industry has shifted toward lower margin bulk commodities and intermodal, while pricing was relatively weak © Oliver Wyman MOST RAILROADS IMPROVED THEIR OPERATING RATIOS © Oliver Wyman CSX AND NS MADE THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR OPERATING RATIOSCPKC and UP reported more modest acquisition-related adjustments © Oliver Wyman UP AND NS HAVE HAD THE LARGEST REDUCTIONS IN OPERATING RATIO OVER THE PAST TWOYEARS Adjusted operating ratio: 2-year quarter-over-quarterPercent © Oliver Wyman EXPENSE REDUCTIONS HAVE MORE THAN OFFSET REVENUE PER RTM DECREASESCSX (2025) and NS (2024) had one-off activity which drove expense increases © Oliver Wyman RAILROADS HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM THEIR WORKFORCESlower volume growth has turned the focus to increasing efficiency gains © Oliver Wyman IN GENERAL, RAILROADS ARE MAINTAINING EMPLOYMENT LEVELS IN LINEWITH RTM CHANGESCPKC and FXE have grown the workforce as volumes have increased; CSX however has added employees while RTMs declined © Oliver Wyman EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVED ACROSS THE INDUSTRYNS and UP saw the largest improvements, with the Canadian railroads also seeing strong productivity gains © Oliver Wyman MOST RAILROADS SAW OPERATING INCOME IMPROVEMENTS IN 2025 © Oliver Wyman THE TWO-YEAR TREND FOR OPERATING INCOME IS GENERALLY POSITIVECSX has experienced an uneven 2025, while BNSF is narrowing the gap with UP © Oliver Wyman THE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN KEEPING A TIGHT REIN ON CAPEXOnly CPKC and UP have accelerated the pace of their investments significantly Year-to-date capital expenditures:$ millionsQ3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 © Oliver Wyman CN, NS, AND BNSF ALL SAW IMPROVEMENTS IN CASH FLOW CPKC and UP have seen modest declines with increased capex, while CSX saw a confluence of factors driving decreased cash flow © Oliver Wyman THE INDUSTRY IS STILL CONVERGING ON A RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITALOF 10%UP leads the industry at 14.5%, while CPKC has been trending up the past two quarters © Oliver Wyman MERGER DISCUSSIONS HAVE JUICED THE STOCK PERFORMANCE OF THE THREE PUBLICLYTRADED US RAILROADS WESTERN CARRIERS SAW IMPROVEMENTS IN BOTH DWELL AND VELOCITYCanadian carriers experienced degradations on both service measures, while CSX and NS performance was mixed © Oliver Wyman FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Yury Gorbunov Jason Kuehn Eric Heller Vice Presidentjason.kuehn@oliverwyman.com Directoreric.heller@oliverwyman.com Directoryury.gorbunov@oliverwyman.com Copyright ©2025 Oliver Wyman All rights reserved. This report may not be reprod