北美一级货运铁路性能——2025年第二季度

Q2 2025 Financial and Operations Review INTRODUCTION Oliver Wyman’s quarterly North American Freight Rail Performance reportcompiles and analyzes publicly available data from the seven largest NorthAmerican railroads: •BNSF Railway (BNSF)•Canadian National Railway (CN)•Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC)•CSX Transportation (CSX)•Ferromex (FXE)•Norfolk Southern Railway (NS)•Union Pacific Railroad (UP) Data sources include the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), the Associationof American Railroads (AAR), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), industryfinancial reports, and public company information All dollar figures are US dollars. Financial figures for CN, CPKC, and FXE areconverted to US dollars using the exchange rate at the end of the latest quarter Total employees for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202418Total employment count and RTMs Q2 2018 to Q2 202519RTMs per employee for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202420Operating income for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024 and peak quarter21Operating income two-year trend with CQGR for Q2 2023 to Q2 202522Year-to-date capital expenditures for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202423Year-to-date free cash flow for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202424Return on invested capital for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202425Railroad stock price performance three-year index26Average dwell time and velocity for Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202427FRA reportable employee and equipment incidents Q2 2025 compared to Q2 202428FRA reportable employee and equipment incidents history and trend29 CLASS I REVENUE SET 3-YEAR RECORDS FOR ALL BUT CN AND CSXOnly CN and CSX revenues declined year-over-year, while lower fuel surcharges created a drag on revenue © Oliver Wyman DESPITE A DECENT Q2, THE OVERALL REVENUE GROWTH RATE REMAINS PALTRYCPKC and FXE revenue growth has outpaced that of Class I peers © Oliver Wyman MOST CLASS ISALSO GREW UNIT VOLUMESCPKC, UP, and NS each had strong volume growth, while CSX, CN, and FXE saw flat growth or a decline © Oliver Wyman UNIT REVENUE DECLINED ACROSS THE INDUSTRY, HOWEVERThis is consistent with intermodal growth and declining fuel surcharges. Only FXE saw an increase in revenue per unit © Oliver Wyman INTERMODAL VOLUMES WERE GENERALLY UP, WHILE CARLOAD TRAFFIC WAS A MIXED BAGIntermodal growth was driven primarily by international traffic © Oliver Wyman THE FIRST HALF OF 2025 SAW BOTH THE MOST INTERMODAL VOLUME OF THE PAST FOURYEARS AND THE HIGHEST SHARE OF IPI RELATIVE TO DOMESTIC TRAFFIC NS AND UP SAW IMPROVED MERCHANDISE VOLUMES, WHILE COAL WAS THE LARGESTGROWTH TAILWIND, ESPECIALLY FOR US CARRIERS Carloads excluding coal:Thousands © Oliver Wyman CPKC AND UP HAD THE STRONGEST REVENUE TON-MILE GROWTHOf the remaining Class Is, only NS saw RTM growth FXE, NS, AND BNSF WERE ABLE TO MAINTAIN OR IMPROVE THEIR REVENUE PER RTMStrong bulk traffic and reduced fuel surcharge revenue created a drag on revenue per RTM © Oliver Wyman ALMOST ALL RAILROADS IMPROVED THEIR OPERATING RATIOOnly CSX posted an increase in OR, but this was a significant improvement over Q1 2025 © Oliver Wyman UNADJUSTED OPERATING RATIOS TELL A SIMILAR STORY: RAILROADS HAVE BEEN ABLE TOIMPROVE COST EFFICIENCY SINCE LAST YEAR Unadjusted operating ratio:PercentQ2 2025 compared to Q2 2024 © Oliver Wyman EXCEPT FOR FXE, CLASS I OPERATING RATIOS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING TOWARD THE 60-65RANGE OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS © Oliver Wyman EXPENSE REDUCTIONS WERE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OPERATING RATIO IMPROVEMENTSMost railroads had cost/RTM declines that offset declines in revenue/RTM. NS and FXE were the reverse, while BNSF saw improvements in both metrics © Oliver Wyman MOST OF THE RAILROADS SHED EMPLOYEES BETWEEN Q2 2024 AND 2025CSX saw an increase in employees, but recently announced layoffs on July 11 © Oliver Wyman RAILROADS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING EMPLOYMENT LEVELS IN LINE WITH RTM CHANGESOnly CSX and FXE have added employees as RTMs declined © Oliver Wyman EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY GENERALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INDUSTRYUP and CPKC saw the largest improvements, while CSX and FXE experienced declines © Oliver Wyman MOST RAILROAD OPERATING INCOMES ARE AT PEAK LEVELS FOR THE PAST THREE YEARSExcept for CSX and FXE © Oliver Wyman THE TWO-YEAR TREND FOR OPERATING INCOME IS GENERALLY POSITIVEAll railroads, except CPKC, have seen increasing operating incomes in 2025 © Oliver Wyman CPKC, CSX, AND UP HAVE ACCELERATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURESCN, NS, and BNSF have reduced capital expenditures1 © Oliver Wyman OVERALL, THE RAIL INDUSTRY IS SEEING IMPROVEMENTS IN CASH FLOWEven adjusting for 2024’s CSR acquisition, NS saw significant free cash flow growth, while CSX’s increased capex and OR has contributed to a decline in cash flow; FXE also had a decline in cash flow © Oliver Wyman THE INDUSTRY IS CONVERGING ON A RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL OF 10%UP and CN swapped places compared to a year ago: UP saw an industry-leading 14.3% ROIC, with CN coming in second at 11.1% © Oliver Wyman WHILE THE CLASS I RAILR