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Key TakeawaysDespite Manufacturing Struggles.Strongconsumer spending and confidence are fuelingintermodal rail volumes ahead of the holidayLower inflation is giving consumers extra room tospend, driving retailer confidence and reinforcingdemand for rail services.Carload Volumes.WithOctober marking theseventh consecutive month of contraction inmanufacturing, carload volumes for key industrialcommodities — like metallic ores, crushed stone,and metals — remain subdued, reflecting weakerdemand in the sector.Demand in 2025.The Federal Reserve’s ratecuts in September and again today are expected tostimulate manufacturing growth, setting the stagefor increased rail demand as industrial activitypicks up in the coming year.Subscribeto receive the Rail Industry Overviewnewsletter directly in your inbox. season. Reflecting this trend, the Freight RailIndex (FRI) — AAR’s economicindicator which tracks the volume offreight rail traffic in the U.S.,including both traditional carloadcommodities and intermodalcontainers and trailers — saw a 1.1%month-over-month decline in Octoberbut showed a 3.5% increase year-over-year. This relatively solid rail trafficperformance signals active inventoryreplenishment by retailers ahead ofthe holiday season and highlightsrail’s vital role in meeting consumerdemand during this peak shopping period.Cooling Inflation Boosts Rail Demand as Budgets Stretch FurtherEasing inflation is giving consumers more room to spend this holiday season. The personal consumptionexpenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in October, with annual inflation at 2.1%, aligning withexpectations and supporting a favorable spending environment. Core PCE inflation, however, increased by0.3% for the month, bringing the annual core rate to 2.7% — edging closer to the Fed's 2% target andindicating steady, manageable price pressures. This moderation has increased retailer confidence andreinforced demand for freight services as businesses ready their stock for the season. Lower inflation furtherstabilizes rail volumes, especially in intermodal freight, which is essential for moving high-demand seasonalgoods like clothing, electronics and home essentials through the supply chain.Demand for Durable Goods Puts Rail in the Driver’s SeatOctober saw an uptick in demand fordurable goods, from vehicles to homeimprovement supplies, addingmomentum to freight volumes. Agrowing trend among olderhomeowners leveraging home equityfor renovations has also boosteddemand for materials transported byrail. By ensuring timely delivery oflarge, high-value goods likeappliances and building materials,rail remains an essential partner toindustries reliant on efficienttransport, effectively meetingconsumer demand even as overall economic conditions evolve. Intermodal Rail Traffic Mirrors Strong Consumer DemandThe surge in consumer spending ismirrored in intermodal rail traffic,which has seen a direct increase inresponse to heightened demand forconsumer goods and imports,particularly through West Coastports. Intermodal rail plays a crucialrole in transporting consumerproducts, from electronics tohousehold goods, underscoring rail’svital connection to the retail and e-commerce sectors during peakshopping seasons. In October 2024,U.S. railroads transported 1,410,083intermodal containers and trailers — a 5.5% year-over-year increase — marking October as one of thestrongest months for intermodal traffic in 2024, with nearly 280,000 units moved per week.Manufacturing’s Persistent Challenges: A Drag on Rail Carload VolumesDespite the strong consumer-drivendemand, the manufacturing sectorcontinues to struggle. TheManufacturing PMI®, from theInstitute for Supply Management®,gauges the health of manufacturing.A reading above 50% meansmanufacturing is expanding; below50% means it’s contracting.October’s Manufacturing PMI® was46.5%, its seventh consecutivemonth below 50% and 23rdin thepast 24 months. Key PMIindicators, including new orders and backlogs, reveal ongoing weaknesses in both domestic andinternational demand for manufactured goods.For rail, this manufacturing downturn has affected carload volumes, as reduced manufacturing activitylowers demand for raw materials and finished product shipments. Carloads of industrial products — closelytied to manufacturing — fell 1.0% in October compared to the same period in 2023 and were up just 0.3%for the year to date. Carload Traffic: Divergent Trends Reflect Sector-Specific DemandFreight railroads play a critical role in transporting raw materials such as metals, chemicals and lumber,which are integral to manufacturing processes. With output in the manufacturing sector flat or even slightlydown for the past couple of years, demand for these shipments has weakened. Additionally, lower exportorders are impacting intermodal volumes heading to ports, reducing the overall flow of goods by rail. Totalcarloads (excluding intermodal) in October were 1,128,025 — a 1.4% decline from 2023 — driven by drops inkey categori