北美货运铁路2025年第一季度财务与运营绩效回顾

INTRODUCTION Oliver Wyman’s quarterly North American Freight Rail Performance reportcompiles and analyzes publicly available data from the seven largest NorthAmerican railroads: •BNSF Railway (BNSF)•Canadian National Railway (CN)•Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC)•CSX Transportation (CSX)•Ferromex (FXE)•Norfolk Southern Railway (NS)•Union Pacific Railroad (UP) Data sources include the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), the Associationof American Railroads (AAR), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), industryfinancial reports, and public company information All dollar figures are US dollars. Financial figures for CN, CPKC, and FXE areconverted to US dollars using the exchange rate at the end of the latest quarter REVENUE GROWTH LARGELY OCCURRED OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATESCN, CPKC, and FXE all had peak quarters for revenue © Oliver Wyman US RAILROADS HAVE LAGGED IN REVENUE GROWTHThe industry has not been able to grow other traffic enough to offset long-term headwinds from declining coal © Oliver Wyman THE US CARRIERS, EXCEPT CSX, DID SEE UNIT VOLUME GROWTHThis was largely due to strong international intermodal traffic in Q1 2025 © Oliver Wyman CN, CPKC, AND FXE REVENUE GROWTH WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY INCREASED YIELDSUS carriers saw significant revenue yield declines © Oliver Wyman INTERMODAL VOLUME GREW FOR MOST RAILROADS; UP SAW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASECarload volumes were generally down, with only CPKC and BNSF experiencing growth © Oliver Wyman SOFT MERCHANDISE VOLUMES WERE BUOYED BY INCREASING OR STEADYING COALHigher natural gas prices due to increasing LNG exports from the US led to higher domestic coal consumption for the quarter © Oliver Wyman THE INDUSTRY GENERALLY SAW INCREASED REVENUE TON-MILESCSX was impacted by declining volumes due to service issues, while BNSF’s decline was likely due to traffic mix INCREASES IN REVENUE PER RTM LARGELY OCCURRED OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATESDeclines at US carriers were likely due to a mix shift toward coal and intermodal traffic, while BNSF appeared to move toward shorter distance traffic (more volume, lower RTMs) © Oliver Wyman OPERATING RATIOS, EXCEPT FOR UP, HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN THE MID-60’SUP is the only carrier to be courting an OR around 60% © Oliver Wyman TRENDS ARE SIMILAR FOR UNADJUSTED OPERATING RATIOSNS adjusted its operating ratio upward to reflect East Palestine, OH recoveries © Oliver Wyman IN THE PAST THREE QUARTERS, BNSF, CSX, AND NS HAVE ALL SEEN INCREASING OPERATINGRATIOS Adjusted operating ratio: 2-year quarter-over-quarterPercent © Oliver Wyman REVENUE HAS GROWN FASTER THAN EXPENSES OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATESOf the US carriers, only BNSF grew revenue and reduced expenses EMPLOYMENT IS GENERALLY DOWN ACROSS THE INDUSTRYEastern carriers in particular saw sharp declines © Oliver Wyman EMPLOYMENT AND REVENUE TON-MILES HAVE TRENDED IN THE SAME DIRECTIONNS and UP have had much larger headcount reductions than RTMs © Oliver Wyman EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY GENERALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE INDUSTRYOnly CSX and FXE saw a slight productivity decline © Oliver Wyman CPKC AND NS HIT THEIR HIGHEST OPERATING INCOME LEVELS IN FOUR YEARSNS’s jump in operating income was largely due to East Palestine insurance recoveries in 2025, compared to expenses in 2024 © Oliver Wyman CANADIAN AND EASTERN CARRIERS’ OPERATING INCOMES REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTEREDNS in particular has seen significant operating income growth relative to the industry and has recently overtaken CSX © Oliver Wyman THE INDUSTRY TOOK DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CAPEX SPENDING IN Q1 2025CPKC, CSX, and UP grew capex investment, while the remaining railroads all cut back © Oliver Wyman CASH FLOW IS A MIXED BAG, WITH BNSF, NS, AND CPKC SEEING DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASES © Oliver Wyman ONLY NS AND UP HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS IN ROIC OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS © Oliver Wyman RAILROAD STOCK PERFORMANCE HAS LAGGED THE S&P 500, WITH A DECLINING TRENDSINCE Q2 2024 Class I indexed stock price performance,Percent3/31/2022 - 3/31/2025 NS AND BNSF IMPROVED BOTH DWELL AND VELOCITYCN and CSX worsened on both, while CPKC and UP performance was mixed © Oliver Wyman NEARLY ALL CARRIERS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN INJURIES AND INCIDENTSOnly BNSF reported a higher employee injury rate and CN a higher equipment incident rate quarter-over-quarter © Oliver Wyman THE EMPLOYEE INJURY RATE HAS STABILIZED AND BEGUN TO DECLINE POST-COVIDEquipment incidents have been declining in the aftermath of E. Palestine Employee injuriesQuarterly values per 200,000 employee Equipment incidentsQuarterly values per million train -hours -miles © Oliver Wyman FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Yury Gorbunov Jason Kuehn Eric Heller Vice Presidentjason.kuehn@oliverwyman.com Directoreric.heller@oliverwyman.com Directoryury.gorbunov@oliverwyman.com All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Oliver