北美一级货运铁路业绩——2025年第四季度

Q4 2025 Financial and Operations Review Oliver Wyman’s quarterly North American Freight Rail Performance reportcompiles and analyzes publicly available data from the seven largest North American railroads: •BNSF Railway (BNSF)•Canadian National Railway (CN)•Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC)•CSX Transportation (CSX) Data sources include the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), the Associationof American Railroads (AAR), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), industry All dollar figures are US dollars. Financial figures for CN, CPKC, and FXE areconverted to US dollars using the exchange rate at the end of the latest quarter CONTENTS(1/2) CONTENTS(2/2) CANADIAN RAILROADS AND FXE SAW REVENUE GROWTH, WHILE US REVENUEDECLINED CPKC and FXE experienced their highest Q4 revenue in the past 3 years THE OVERALL REVENUE GROWTH RATE REMAINS LOW CPKC’s and FXE’s revenue growth has continued to outpace that of their Class I peers THE INDUSTRY SAW MIXED VOLUME GROWTH FXE and CSX experienced growth, while CN and CPKC had easy comparisons due to port work stoppages in Q4 2024 UP, NS, AND BNSF SAW THE LARGEST IMPROVEMENTS IN FREIGHT REVENUEPER UNIT Revenue per unit for the remaining Class Is was either stagnant or declined THREE OF THE FOUR US CARRIERS HAD DECLINING INTERMODAL VOLUMES Most railroads had growth in either intermodal or carload, but offset by declines in the other COAL WAS A TAILWIND, WHILE ONLY NS GREW MERCHANDISE VOLUMES NS’s merchandise growth was driven primarily by increased chemicals and automotive carloads REVENUE TON-MILES WERE UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INDUSTRY… CN’s large improvement was driven by grain, fertilizers, and intermodal …BUT REVENUE PER RTM WAS GENERALLY LOWER THAN LAST YEAR This suggests the industry continues to shift toward lower margin bulk commodities and intermodal, while pricingwas relatively weak THE CANADIAN RAILROADS WERE THE ONLY ONES TO IMPROVE OR CPKC’s OR is significantly lower than its peers, while OR for CN and UP is hovering around 60% BNSF, NS, AND CPKC HAVE HAD THE LARGEST OR IMPROVEMENTS OVER THEPAST 2 YEARS THE INDUSTRY GENERALLY REDUCED OPERATING RATIOS IN 2025 VS. 2024 Both UP and CPKC achieved operating ratios below 60% in 2025 CLASS ISGENERALLY OFFSET LOWER REVENUE PER RTM THROUGH EXPENSE REDUCTIONS RAILROADS HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM THEIR WORKFORCE With slower volume growth, the focus remains on increasing efficiency gains RAILROADS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING EMPLOYMENT LEVELS IN LINE WITH RTM CHANGES CPKC has trimmed employees as RTMs grew, CSX has added employees as RTMs declined, and FXE has grown both CNCPKC-7.3%-1.9%CSX2.0%NS-27.4%UP-32.3%BNSF-21.3%FXE8.2%CNCPKC-7.3%5.0%CSX-4.3%NS-11.4%UP-7.9%BNSF-18.0%FXE11.0% EMPLOYEE PRODUCTIVITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE INDUSTRY FXE, CN, and UP saw the largest improvements RAILROAD OPERATING INCOME WAS MIXED IN Q4 CN, CPKC, and CSX all grew income, while BNSF’s comparison was helped by a large one-off item in 2024 THE TWO-YEAR TREND FOR OPERATING INCOME HAS BEEN MIXED Both CN and CPKC now have higher operating incomes than the eastern US carriers, while BNSF continues to close the gap with UP MOST RAILROADS INCREASED THEIR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN 2025 Only NS decreased its capex spending, while CSX spent significantly on Hurricane Helene rebuilding CN, NS, AND BNSF ALL SAW IMPROVEMENTS IN CASH FLOW CPKC and UP have seen modest declines with increased capex, while CSX saw a confluence of factors driving decreased cash flow THE INDUSTRY IS STILL CONVERGING ON A RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITALOF 10% Apart from CSX and FXE, all railroads saw a slight uptick in returns, with UP leading the industry at 14.5% MERGER DISCUSSIONS HAVE JUICED THE STOCK PERFORMANCE OF THE THREE PUBLICLYTRADED US RAILROADS SERVICE PERFORMANCE WAS A MIXED BAG Each carrier either improved or degraded on both service metrics SAFETY PERFORMANCE WAS STRONG IN Q4 2025 Both employee injury and equipment incident rates improved across most railroads THE INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS SAFETY RECORD POST-COVID CN and NS have consistently improved their injury rate the most, while UP has improved its equipment incident rate the most FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT Eric HellerDirectoreric.heller@oliverwyman.com Yury GorbunovDirectoryury.gorbunov@oliverwyman.com Jason KuehnVice Presidentjason.kuehn@oliverwyman.com Copyright ©2026 Oliver Wyman All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of Oliver Wyman andOliver Wyman accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. The information and opinions in this reportwere prepared by Oliver Wyman. This report is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute forconsultation with professional accountants, tax, legal, or financial advisors. Oliver Wyman has made every effort to use reliable, up to date,