2025年盘点报告

Authors:Ben KingHannah KolusMichael GaffneyAnna van BrummenNathan PastorekJohn Larsen Taking Stock 2025 Energy & Climate Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY3 A NEW OUTLOOK FOR US EMISSIONS5 RAPIDLY CHANGING POLICY ENVIRONMENT5CONTINUED DEMAND FOR CLEAN ENERGY RESOURCES,CONTINUED NON-POLICY HEADWINDS8 BOUNDING UNCERTAINTY IN PROJECTIONS10 USINGRHG-NEMS EMISSIONS OUTLOOK AND KEY SECTORAL TRENDS12 POWER,TRANSPORT,AND CARBON REMOVAL SECTORS CONTRIBUTE MOST TO EMISSION DECLINES13POWER SECTOR TRENDS CLEANER DESPITE SURGING ELECTRICITY DEMAND14ZEVSALES SHARES CONTINUE TO INCREASE,THOUGH AT A SLOWING PACE18FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY TRADE18INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS HEAVILY DRIVEN BY OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION21HOUSEHOLD ENERGY BILLS DECLINE23 IMPACTS OF REGULATORY ROLLBACKS25 EMISSIONS ARE LOWER WITH NO REGULATORY ROLLBACKS25KEEPING TAILPIPE REGULATIONS RAISES THE FLOOR FORLDVZEVSALES26POWER PLANT REGULATIONS DISPLACE COAL CAPACITY AND BOOST RENEWABLES AND GAS27 ACCESS THE DATA29 ABOUT RHODIUM GROUP31 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS32 DISCLOSURES32 Executivesummary The first seven months of the second Trump administration and 119thCongress haveseenthe mostabrupt shiftin energy and climate policyin recent memory.Afterthe Bidenadministrationadopted meaningfulpolicies todrivedecarbonization,Congress and theWhite House are nowenacting apolicy regime that isopenly hostile towind, solar, andelectric vehiclesandseeks to promote increased fossil fuel production and use. In this year’s Taking Stock report—Rhodium Group’s annual independentoutlookof theevolution of the US energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under currentpolicy—we find the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 26-41% in 2040 relative to2005 levels.On the way to 2040, we estimate GHG emissions levels will decline26-35%in2035,a meaningfulshiftfromour2024 report,which showed a steeper decline of38-56%by that point.Emissions outcomesvarydue toa range of expectations for economicgrowth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends, which wecombine to create low, mid, and high emissions scenarios. In the high emissions scenario,the most pessimistic outlook on decarbonization,the pace of decarbonization more thanhalves through 2040, withannual average GHG reductions of 0.4% from 2025 through2040 compared to1.1%from 2005 through 2024.In the midand lowemissions scenarios,the pace of decarbonization accelerates instead, withannual averagereductionsof1.4%and 1.9% through 2040, respectively,representinga 22% and 70% acceleration, comparedwith thepace of thelast two decades. Net million metric tons (mmt) ofCO2-equivalent (CO2-e) Key sectoralshiftsunderpin these topline findings: Thepower sectoremits15-43% fewer GHGsin 2040 compared to 2024 levels,even aselectricitydemand grows faster than at any point this century.Renewables growsubstantially in all three emissions scenarios through 2030to claim the expiring cleanelectricity tax credits, butdeploymentdivergesafterthat.The coal fleet shrinksby 55-75%compared to 2024 levels, butthe mix of technologies that replace this capacity andmeet growing load depends onfossil fuelpricesand clean technologycosts. In the lowand mid cases, renewablesoutcompetegas, and emissions continueto declinethrough2040. In the high emissions scenarios, gas contributes moregeneration to the grid than in2024 or 2030, and power sector GHG emissions increase by 8% from 2030 through 2040. Transportation sectoremissions decline more modestly, by8-20% in 2040 compared to2024 levels,with zero-emissionsvehicle (ZEV) sales shares increasing in the light(LDV),medium(MDV), and heavy-duty(HDV)fleets.Falling battery prices and strengtheningconsumer sentiment push ZEV LDV sales shares up to 19-43% by 2040, double toquadruple 2024 levels. Domesticoil and gas productionis increasinglyaimed at export markets,given relativelymodest changesintheirdomestic consumption. Liquified natural gas exports increase by94-150% in 2040 compared to 2024 levels.Net exports of crude oil and other liquid fuelsvary widely across emissions scenarios, flipping to net imports in the low emissions caseand increasing bymore than 600% in the high emissions case in 2040 compared to 2024net export levels.Industrial emissions,mostlytied tooil and gasproduction, processing,and transportation, decline4%in 2040from 2024 levelsin the low emissionsscenario andincrease3-15% higher in the mid and high cases. EnvironmentalProtection Agency(EPA)Administrator Lee Zeldin has identified 31regulatory policies for reconsideration, including greenhouse gas standards for powerplants, on-road vehicles, and oil and gas operations. EPA hasalreadyproposedarepealof the power plant standards, and a draft rule repealing vehicle standards is under reviewat the Office of Management and Budget.As such, we assume these major EPA regulationsare removed in our baseline current policy modeling. To illustratethepotentialimpacts of these regulations, we produce sensitivit