盘点，2025年9月：特别关注：培养越南的高科技人才

VIET NAMECONOMIC UPDATEPublic Disclosure Authorized SPECIAL FOCUS Nurturing Viet Nam’s High-tech Talents Taking StockSeptember 2025 VIET NAMECONOMIC UPDATE SPECIAL FOCUS Nurturing Viet Nam’s High-tech Talents © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work anddoes not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respectto the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors,denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, TheWorld Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Students conducting experiments with the Yaskawa robot at the School of Electrical and ElectronicEngineering, Hanoi University of Science and Technology (HUST) — one of the universities supported by the TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent Economic Developments Viet Nam’s economic growth remained resilient despite rising global trade uncertaintiesHousehold consumption remained stable amid positive wage growthiiMonetary policy remained accommodative, as State Bank of Viet Nam interventionscontained foreign exchange pressures and increased credit growthii Special Focus: Nurturing Viet Nam’s High-Tech Talents CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS 1.1 Recent Economic Developments Growth acceleration continued in 2025 with a temporary surge in exportsDomestic and foreign investment demand remained robust despite rising uncertaintyHousehold consumption remained stable amid positive wage growthManufacturing and trade-related services expanded rapidly on the supply sideRobust demand and higher imports contributed to inflation11Balance of payments deficit widened12Monetary policy remained accommodative14 1.2 Outlook and Policy Implications The outlook is challenging amid global trade tensions and rising uncertaintyPolicy Implications CHAPTER 2. NURTURING VIET NAM’S HIGH-TECH TALENTS Viet Nam’s high-income, high-tech ambitionsViet Nam in a global tech talent race Economy-wide STEM talent baseTalent gaps in critical high-tech sectorsAcademic excellence at the top: universities, innovative tech clusters, 2.3 Barriers to building a broad and deep tech talent pool A cycle of weak postgraduate education and limited faculty capacityChronic underinvestment and inefficiencies in higher education and R&D fundingWeak university-industry linkagesInfrastructure gaps in training and R&D 2.4 Igniting Viet Nam’s Tech Talent-Innovation Flywheel Expanding and deepening the high-tech talent poolBuilding shared R&D and pilot infrastructureCatalyze university-industry-government linkages and FDI spillovers LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1.GDP growth driven by surge in exports in anticipation of increased U.S. tariffsFigure 1.2.Higher exports contributed to a boost in importsFigure 1.3.Exports to U.S. spike in anticipation of future trade restrictionsFigure 1.4.Reversal in H2-2025 expected as frontloading dissipatesFigure B.1.1. Viet Nam exports to U.S. and total exportsFigure B.1.2. Merchandise exports growth was driven by strong electronics exportsFigure B.1.3. Average effective tariff rate by productFigure 1.5.Public investment propelled acceleration in total investmentFigure 1.6.FDI commitments increase largely directed to manufacturing sectorFigure 1.7.New FDI commitments by countryFigure 1.8.Domestic consumption growth remained below pre-pandemic ratesFigure 1.9.Private consumption has represented a smaller share of economic activity in Viet NamFigure 1.10. Income growth remained below pre-pandemic trendsFigure 1.11. Manufacturing employment growthFigure 1.12. Robust manufacturing production in 2025Figure 1.13. Sub-sector manufacturing production growthFigure 1.14. Manufacturing and trade services boosted GDP growth on the supply sideFigure 1.15. Inflation remains below the SBV’s target of 4.5-5 percent for 2025Figure 1.16. Inflation was driven by transport and housingFigure 1.17. Current account shrank