盘点，2025年3月：电气化之旅：越南的电动交通转型（英）

ELECTRIFYING JOURNEYSE-mobility Transition in Viet Nam @2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of ExecutiveDirectors. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of theWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities ofthe World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit @shutterstock.com TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARYi Recent Economic DevelopmentsiOutlook and Policy ImplicationsvSpecial Focus: E-mobility transitionvi Chapter 1. Economic Developments and Prospects 1.1 Recent Economic Developments9Growth accelerated in 2024 driven by a strong rebound in exports9Manufacturing led the recovery of output, investment, and jobs12Household consumption remained stable amid positive wage growthand a nascent property sector recovery15The balance of payment deficit widened as the current account surpluswas offset by capital outflows18Monetary policy remained accommodative, while intervening to contain FX pressures19Under-disbursement of public investments led to fiscal consolidation22Electricity intensity of GDP increased24 1.2 Outlook and Policy Implications27Outlook remains positive, but with heightened uncertainties27Policy Implications29 Chapter 2. E-mobility Transition31 2.1 Context322.2 What does the e-mobility transition entail?342.3 E-mobility scenarios372.4 Impact on electricity demand402.5 Impact on GHG emissions432.6 Economic impact452.7 Policy recommendations47 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. Viet Nam was the fastest-growing developing economy in East Asia in 20249Figure 1.2. GDP growth was driven by a strong rebound in exports9Figure 1.3. Private consumption remains a moderate driver of growth in Viet Nam10Figure 1.4. GDP growth was led by industry and services10Figure 1.5. Export-oriented manufacturing and services drove GDP11Figure 1.6. Merchandise trade continued to recover since 202312Figure 1.7. Merchandise exports growth driven by strong electronics exports12Figure 1.8. Robust manufacturing production in 202413Figure 1.9. PMI showcased similar dynamics as production13Figure 1.10. Manufacturing production driven by electronics, motor vehicles and machinery14Figure 1.11. Manufacturing employment growth marked by rebound in machinery jobs14Figure 1.12. Private investment propelled acceleration in total investment15Figure 1.13. FDI commitments increase largely directed to manufacturing sector15Figure 1.14. Domestic consumption remained stable16Figure 1.15. Weak domestic demand was reported as a key factor impacting business activitiesin Q4–202416Figure 1.16. Real estate market shows signs of recovery16Figure 1.17. Formal employment remained stable17Figure 1.18. Income growth remained below pre-pandemic trends17Figure 1.19. Current account lowered due to rising services deficit18Figure 1.20. Rising financial account deficit driven by higher net outflows18Figure 1.21. Balance of payments turned negative with the current account surplus offset byfinancial outflows and unrecorded capital outflows19Figure 1.22. Continued pressure on the exchange rate led to depreciation20Figure 1.23. SBV managed a gradual depreciation by selling foreign reserves20Figure 1.24. SBV maintained its policy rates20Figure 1.25. Credit growth reached SBV’s target20Figure 1.26. Inflation21Figure 1.27. Reported asset quality appeared relatively stable22Figure 1.28. Corporate bond issuances rebounded, driven by the banking sector22Figure 1.29. Increased revenues were driven by greater land sales23Figure 1.30. Under-disbursement of public investment led to positive fiscal balance23Figure 1.31. An increasingly electricity-intensive GDP growth24Figure 1.32. Industrial usage led to recent changes in electricity intensity24Figure 1.33. More energy-intensive industries drove industrial output growth in 202426Figure 1.34. Global growth is stabilizing after years of overlapping negative shocks27Figure 2.1. Share of GHG emissions by vehicle segments in Viet Nam, 202032Figure 2.2. Motorization rate for two-wheelers and passenger cars 2010–202234 Figure 2.3. Projected vehicle annual sales by segments 2023–50 (units)35Figure 2.4. Aggregated EV charging demand under