2025年动力系统研究报告：走向成熟：电动交通转型的下一阶段

The next phase in the eMobilitytransformation Dr. Jörn Neuhausen, Dr. Philipp Rose, Jan-Hendrik BomkeAugust 2025 Overcoming current headwinds through innovations and improvedeconomics will determine the next phase in eMobility transformation Executive summary Across the portfolio,multi-energy platformsand PHEVs are regaining importance, but futureBEV platforms still lead the way–Differentiated BEV platforms will meet diverse customer needs 1 Innovations inenergy densities, powertrain efficiency, and charging speed improve the ease of daily use of eMobility –in particular, the improvement in charging speed (with up to 400km in 10 minutes) and efficiency gains will further drive diffusion2 Battery cellsto remain thekey cost driver for electric powertrains, heavily affected byraw material prices –currently-available production capacities lead to lower market prices across suppliers and chemistries3 Whiletotal cost of ownership parityis reached across most segmentstoday,powertrain cost paritywill be reachedfrom 2030 –as innovation speeds flatten, the residual values of used BEVs are expected to stabilize4 Across regions short- and mid-term forecasts (BEV diffusiondemand c. 20% in 2025 and40% in 2030) are slightly reduced –long-term, transformationwith up to60% diffusion in 2035is expected toprevail, resulting in 5 TWh battery demand Successful BEV transformationin Europe requires continued focus onimproving performancewithinshort innovation cycles –and commercial competitiveness supported by local and independent battery cell production6 Table of contents 1Future powertrain portfolio2Technology and product development3Cost development4Operational costs5Market diffusion6Recommendation Differentiated BEVplatforms will be thecore future powertrainportfolio, with afurther increase incharging speeds Strategy&Powertrain study 2025 – Coming of age We expect a stable 2030 powertrain portfolio dominated by BEVs –PHEVs are revitalized as a bridging technology Evolution of powertrain portfolio (2030) Across these platforms, standard and long-range variants are expectedto be offered to meet customer flexibility requirements Table of contents 1Future powertrain portfolio2Technology and product development3Cost development4Operational costs5Market diffusion6Recommendation Innovations in energydensities, powertrainefficiency, andcharging speed willimprove the ease ofdaily use of eMobility Strategy&Powertrain study 2025 – Coming of age BEVs are closing in on the 450-500 Wh/l energy density milestone,driven by silicon anodes and advanced cathode chemistries Cell and pack energy densities – Technology comparison Technological enablers for higher pack energy density •To compete with ICE vehicles, BEVs must reach apack-level energy density of c.450-500 Wh/l, enablinghigh rangesR •Material-level innovations have driven recent progress: 1.Cathodes: Cathode development beyond NMC 622pushed pack energy densities towards400-450 Wh/l, e.g., through higher nickel contentand improved structural stability1 2.Anodes: Adding 2-5% silicon enables near-targetdensities, supported by improved cell-to-pack ratioscompared to SSBs2 3.Solid-state battery: Despite high cell-level potentialof over 1,000 Wh/l, SSBs struggle to match the highcell-to-pack ratio due to additional mechanicalrequirements3 Energy consumption decreased by 5-10 percent in recent years –further drops to 12-14 kWh by 2030 are expected BEV energy consumption Comments •Overrecent years, energy efficiencyimproved by 5-10%across vehiclesegments• Over thecoming years, we expectincreased efforts tofurther reduceenergy consumption by10-15%(e.g., by thermal management,aerodynamics)•Improved energy efficiency leadsto direct customer benefits:•+50-75 kmrangeA (at constant battery size)•-€500battery costs(at constant range)B To avoid costly battery pack size to reach range targets, the focus stilllies on powertrain efficiency – especially in eMotor and Inverter Powertrain efficiency roadmap(Exemplary) With improvements in charging technologies, BEV gets much closer toICE refueling speed, with 400km recharged range in 10 minutes by 2030 Charging technological development (2020 vs. 2030) Charging performance Charged range in km after 5/10 minVery high charging speedsenablecombustion-engine-like charging results,reducing the need for public slow charging Table of contents 1Future powertrain portfolio2Technology and product development3Cost development4Operational costs5Market diffusion6Recommendation Battery cells to remainthe key cost driver forelectric powertrain,heavily affected byraw material prices Strategy&Powertrain study 2025 – Coming of age Product costs are primarily driven by battery and cell costs;components heavily affected by value chain and market ramp-up Product target costs(2030) LFP prices have fallen below forecast – further declines expected by2030 due to overcapacity-driven competition Strategy& cell price forecast 2030 (in