中国半导体设备：2025年中国晶圆制造设备竞争动态

China Semicap: 2025 WFE Competitive dynamics in China We track the WFE competitive dynamics in China annually (2023, 2024); in this call werefresh the numbers for 2025. Overall localization ratio rose from 16% in 2024 to 21%in 2025; Deposition, Doping and Process Control made the best progress in growth.Lithography and Track remain the two sectors with the lowest localization ratios. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com In our latest China WFE model update (report and model), we estimated thatChina’s WFE self-sufficiency reached 21% in 2025 (Exhibit 2).Dry Etch andDeposition are still the two most important segments for local vendors, the localizationratio reached 31%/27% (Exhibit 3), supported by strong YoY growth at 37%/67% (Exhibit4), respectively. The progress on Doping/Process Control was better than expected with86%/63% YoY growth for local players, self-sufficiency reached 13/10%, above 10% forthe first time. Lithography/Track still didn't make much progress with LSD self-sufficiency.Cleaning was growing surprisingly slow at only 8% YoY. Thermo Processing and CMPachieved decent YoY growth at 43%/33% respectively. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Among local players, AMEC/NAURA are gaining share in Deposition, and NAURAis expanding market presence in Doping (Exhibit 5).Comparing 2025 share to 2024,NAURA further expanded share in Deposition from 64% to 65%, and AMEC also expandedfrom 1% to 3%, while Piotech/ACMR slightly lost share with delay in revenue recognition.NAURA recognized doping revenue for the first year and is already the second-largest localplayer in the sector with 27% share. Within Dry Etch, AMEC/NAURA shares are stable at47%/48%. The dynamics within other sectors remain largely unchanged. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Most global vendors’ growth in China slowed in 2025 (Exhibit 11), with LRCX theonly exception at +36% YoY. From 2018-24, ASML/KLAC’s China revenue capturedstrong growth at 32%/28% CAGR, but in 2025 the revenue was down HSD YoY, indicatingthat there is indeed some pull forwards as the competition from local players was verylimited. Comparing TEL/AMAT/LRCX where the competition with Chinese vendors inDeposition/Dry Etch is more intense, between 2018-24 clearly TEL benefited more thanAMAT/LRCX as the priority for local fabs is to de-Americanize rather than fully localize, with2018-24 CAGR at 25%/12%/15%, respectively. However, interestingly LRCX revenuein 2025 was up 36% YoY with TEL/AMAT at -20%/-12%, we believe it’s mainly due tothe customer mix change, as the incremental demand in 2025 was mainly advanced logicwhere LRCX has higher share (most Dry Etch tools are not banned). Looking beyond 2025,we expect global vendors’ exposure in China will further normalize as non-China demandis growing faster, and local players could accelerate share gain given the pull-forward fromthe global players slowed down. Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Maintain Outperform on NAURA, AMEC, Piotech.Within our coverage, as Deposition /Dry Etch segments have large TAM and self-sufficiency is still accelerating, we still like allthree that benefits from the irreversible localization trend. We believe the share gain storywill be a multi-year runway given the certainty of domestic fab expansion. Recently thelocal memory customers have significantly revised up their plan on capacity expansion forthe next few years due to the memory supercycle, and we believe advanced logic will alsoaccelerate capacity expansion given the surge in demand for local AI chips. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY680.00): As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY500.00): Primarily focused on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continue tobenefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. Piotech (Outperform, CNY580.00): Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focused on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which should allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic subs