担保债券与超国家机构债券更新

Global CB in CA - LCR level 1, lower growth ofglobal supra supply in 2026 - if any Bernd VolkStrategist OSFI proposal - LCR Level 1 for CB - supportive for spreads Last week, Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI)launched a public consultation on the 2027 Liquidity Adequacy Requirements(LAR) Guideline. OSFI proposes to introduce a new Level 1B category of HQLA,including highly rated CB subject to a 7% haircut.In our view, this is driven byCanadian banks willing to achieve "third country equivalence" in the EU going Siddharth GargResearch Associate Under Basel III framework, highly-rated CB are typically eligible for Level 2A HQLAstatus, subject to a 15% haircut. Currently, in the EU, LCR Level 1 with a 7% haircutapplies only to CB with EU Covered Premium Label. We highlight that the OSFIproposal (as current EU LCR rules for CB) goes beyond BIS recommendations.Under the latter, LCR Level 2A is currently still the highest HQLA category CB can In our view, given that Canadian banks have an outstanding CB volume of EUR183.4bn equivalent (eq), with 46.5% denominated in EUR (30.5% in USD, 15% inGBP, 3% in CHF, 2.9% in CAD, 1.7% in AUD and 0.4% in NOK), they have a stronginterest that the OSFI proposal for CB to be recognized as LCR Level 1B eligible inCanadabecomes effective.The volume of retained Canadian CB declined We are still somewhat cautious on strong demand for foreign CB by Canadianbanks for their own LCR portfolios.For example, we understand that bonds issuedby Canadian provinces are LCR Level 1 eligible in Canada (without the 7% haircutthat would apply for CB). However, overall, the proposal by OSFI shows thatregulatory support for CB is increasing further globally, particularly in countriesmaking strong use of CB.While the proposal still takes until at least 1 May 2027 to Global supra supply remains high amid low supply by Worldbank We provide annual supply of main supra issuers globally, including all currenciessince 2021 and supply ytd (based in Bloomberg, including non-benchmark bondsand taps), in total and per issuer in EUR equivalent terms (Figure 1). We provide thesame for EUR, USD, and GBP denominated bonds only, in each currency (Figures After a strong increase of supra supply for three consecutive years, ytd supply frommain supras globally stands at EUR 254.7bn equivalent (eq), which is 52% of FY2025 (EUR 489.4bn eq). While total ytd supply by non-European surpras declinedby around 11% (link here), total ytd supply by European supras is up by around 8%(link here), with more to come from European supras (due to the EU having However, IBRD’s ytd supply stands at EUR 16.7bn eq versus EUR 59.3bn eq for FY2025. Regarding USD, ytd supply by IBRD stands at USD 12.9bn, 71% less than theFY 2025 USD denominated supply of USD 44.1bn. IFC’s ytd supply stands at EUR7.9bn eq versus EUR 24.2bn eq for FY 2025. It’s ytd USD supply stands at USD 3.9bnwhich is 71% less than the USD 13.4bn issued in FY 2025. IDAWBG’s ytd supplystands at EUR 2bn eq versus EUR 19.9bn eq for FY 2025, with ytd supply In our view, total ytd supply by the main global supra issuers accounting for 52%versus FY 2025 leaves room for 2026 to end up with higher supply than 2025.Moreover, it is noteworthy that Worldbank entities have a financial from 1 July to 30June of the following calendar year. However, it seems that the significant growth of global supra supply in the past two years will not be achieved in 2026, if any. Forexample, also on a ytd basis, supply by Worldbank entities declined significantly On the other hand, with recently increased inflation, plenty of geopoliticalchallenges, stretched sovereign budgets in most countries and the consensusseeing an increased need for defence spending in many countries, we expect global Despite ongoing high supply, with sovereign debt typically at staggeringly highlevels and the direction of travel remaining upward, supras with high paid-in andcallablecapital and ratings being not strongly linked to the respectiveshareholders seem have assets. This is due to, for example, their typical Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and wil