长远视角：化工——分析伊朗战争对上游化工的持久影响

The Long View: Chemicals - Analysing the lasting impact onupstream chemicals of the Iran war With US-Iran negotiations often reported to be in their final stages, now is a good time toexamine the long-term impacts of the crisis on upstream chemicals. On balance, we seesome long-term benefits to market structure. Petrochemical demand is typically resilient,with many consumer-facing applications. On the supply side, we expect some lasting cuts,even if the majority of currently closed capacity comes back online. Better supply-demandcombined with expected higher oil prices means we increase our long-term polyolefin priceestimates by c. 5-15%. There are risks (e.g. demand destruction, no long-term capacitychanges), but this analysis gives us conviction that if upstream chemical share prices declinematerially on a peace agreement, there could be a long-term opportunity. James Hooper+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.+212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com Sebastien Afoysebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com We see petrochemicals supply-demand as improving.Petrochemicals volume demandtends to be relatively resilient, with 2007-09 the only down years in the last 20, supportedby many consumer-facing applications. On the supply side, in most currently impactedcountries we believe petrochemicals is a nationally strategic industry (e.g. the Middle East,China, Taiwan), but we don’t expect all capacity to reopen given the higher costs and lastingdamage to Qatari LNG facilities. Specialist Sales James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com We raise our long-term polyolefin price forecasts.Our proprietary polyolefins supply-demand model uses 3 factors to drive petrochemical prices: the operating rate, GDPgrowth and Brent Crude prices (the marginal commodity). With better supply-demand andhigher oil prices outweighing a possible decline in GDP, we raise our estimates by between5-15% over 2027-30. The lasting changes: we see a steeper cost curve and therefore better economicsfor natural gas-based producers, mostly in the Middle East and North America. Butpossible $5 Henry Hub looms as a risk for North America.The marginal commodityof most petrochemicals is oil, given the supply balance is in Europe and East Asia. Theoil-gas spread has recently moved considerably in favour of gas, and North Americanpetchem plants are currently beneficiaries. We believe Middle Eastern producers will alsobenefit once logistics costs normalise. But for North American capacity, our house $5 HenryHub view looms as a risk to the current prosperity. In oil-based feedstock regions, we seeintegration as a greater advantage in a higher cost environment, potentially benefitingBASF. We’re ready to buy a possible end-of-war dip in our upstream names.In our view, it’slikely that share prices across our upstream coverage fall on a formal announcement of theend of the conflict. But we think this could create an opportunity. ForBASF, our forecaststructural improvements to upstream markets mean we think the €40-50 share pricetrading range of recent years is no longer merited, and the floor is higher. ForBorouge andSABIC, although rated Market-Perform on the current challenges, we become more bullishon their long-term prospects. Theindustrial gasescould also benefit across a variety ofour scenarios, from supporting new North American petchem capacity to higher-for-longercommodities creating pricing opportunities. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We expect the Middle East’s petrochemicals advantage to increase once logistics costs normalise.We rateBorougeand SABIC Market-Perform,given the short-term uncertainties about the conflict and its duration. For BASFwe see upstream conditions as slightly better, but margin improvements are more limited given their mostly oil-based feedstock. However, we see BASF as better-positioned than most in the new environment given that it benefits from theintegration advantage, and over the next couple of years we expect greater European domestic demand before memories of theconflict fade.We therefore believe that BASF is now less likely to return to the €40-50 trading range we have seen inthe last few years. We rate BASF Outperform. If North American natural gas prices stay below $5 for an extended period of time, that would encourage more North Americanpetrochemicals capacity. This would benefit the industrial gas companies:Linde, Air Products and Air Liquide, all ratedOutperform. If North American natural gas does go to $5, higher commodity prices mean an excuse to use their ample pricingpower (see report 7 May 2026 - The Bernstein Industrial Gases Primer: How the industry structure can support long-termoutperformance). Elsewhere in our coverage, higher-for-longer petchem prices will mean a test of pricing power.Both Paints & Coatings& downstream industrials will need to price for their likely hig