伊朗战争对泰国的影响

AsiaThailand EconomicsAsia Thematic Analysis Effects of the Iran War on Thailand Juliana LeeChief Economist+65-6423-5203 The Iran War, while posing a substantial inflationary shock via elevated oil prices,finds the Bank of Thailand (BoT) in a nuanced policy position. The recent rate cut onFebruary 25, aligning with our forecast, was a direct response to prevailing lowinflation, a persistent negative output gap, and an uneven domestic recovery,thereby significantly diminishing the likelihood of a near-term rate hike. Indeed, a surge in oil prices would exacerbate the risk of sharply weaker growth,reinforcing the disincentive for monetary tightening. This oil shock intervenes at acritical juncture for Thailand, threatening to derail nascent growth momentum andan improving investment outlook precisely as global risk aversion intensifies. Concurrently, the BoT is equally constrained from further easing; the effectiveclosure of the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining elevated oil prices, exerts continuedpressure on Thailand's external balance. This delicate equilibrium, however, doesnot signal an impending external crisis, given Thailand's foreign exchange reservesexceeding IMF adequacy metrics. Of thethree scenariosarticulated by our energy expert, we have drifted betweena middle-of-the-road scenario in whichan ambiguous closure of the Strait ofHormuzsees oil prices at USD80-100/bbl and the worst-case scenario in whichaprolonged, full-scale closure of the Strait of Hormuzsees oil prices at USD200/bbl,resulting in a global recession. This leaves central banks caught between a rock anda hard place. Historically, along with Vietnam, Thailand has faced a relatively high pass-throughof higher crude oil prices to consumer price inflation, despite policy measures todampen it.By our estimate, a 10% persistent rise in oil prices historically resultedin a 0.45 percentage point rise in CPI headline inflation.The Trade Policy andStrategy Office (TPSO)'s estimate supports our analysis, as it sees oil prices atUSD80/bbl (which would see Thailand's inflation within the BoT inflation range of1–2% versus our estimate of 1.4%, as a 23% rise in oil prices from our earlierassumption of USD65/bbl adds 1.1 percentage points to the prevailing forecast of0.3%). In the case of a 54% rise in oil prices to USD100/bbl, our estimate would placeThailand's inflation at 2.8%, within the TPSO's 2-3% range. The TPSO's estimate ofabove-3% inflation when oil prices reach USD120/bbl stands relatively low whencompared to our own estimate of above 4%, although the divergence may be dueto an underestimate of the impact on demand and price control measures. We aremore inclined to assume oil prices drifting down and averaging around USD80/bblin 2026, about 20% above the prevailing assumption of USD65/bbl; Thailand'sgrowth and inflation could end up at 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, versus ourcurrent forecasts of 2.2% and 0.3%.In a highly uncertain geopolitical environmentthat keeps oil prices very volatile, we thought it best to not to change our officialforecasts at this point, but to articulate the potential impacts on our outlook,depending on oil prices. Source : IEA (CC BY 4.0), Deutsche Bank Research To limit the impact on local fuel prices, the Thai governmentrecently capped thediesel price at THB29.94/litre for 15 days,using the Oil Fuel Fund mechanism. Thefund was also directedto partially dampen gasoline price hikes, with additionalmeasures to be considered in case of a protracted situation in the Gulf region,although such a move would mean a deterioration in the fiscal deficit outlook. While referring to oil reserves worth about three months of demand, the Thaigovernment called fora suspension of oil exports,except to Laos and Myanmar,with which Thailand has mutual energy dependence, in response to the Iran War.The government is also considering increasing domestic stockpiles byimposing ahigher mandatory reserve requirement, from 1% to 3%; increasing the biodieselblend ratio (if the global supply shock intensifies); andtemporarily relaxingdomestic fuel specifications for refined fuel imports.The government is alsoseeking additional energy supplies from the US, Africa, and Malaysia andincreasing hydropower imports from Laos and gas from the Thailand–MalaysiaJoint Development Area (JDA).While the Gulf region's share of Thailand's oilimport supply stands at about half, it accounts for over a quarter of natural gas.Meanwhile, the combined share of Malaysia, Myanmar, Australia, and the US inThailand's oil and natural gas supply stands at about a quarter and two-fifths,respectively. Indonesia (at 70%) is Thailand's main source of coal, followed byAustralia (22%). So what does the Bank of Thailand (BoT) do in this environment? As mentioned our earlier note, Asia's Policy Divide Amid Oil Shocks, even as oilprices surge past USD100/bbl, a rate hike by the BoT is highly unlikely. In a fast-moving geopolitical environment, the BoT will likely err