伊朗战争对能源的影响（英）2026

Institutional Research Group Implications of the Iran War Benny WongSenior Research Analyst, Energybenny.wong@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Accelerating the call for more oil & gas investment Published on March 5, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Contents Key takeaways •More oil & gas investment needed regardless of the outcome:In our view, therewas already a growing structural argument before the war that the effects fromyears of industry underinvestment were beginning to emerge. We believe thisconflict in Iran will accelerate the realization of the need for more investmentacross the oil & gas value chain to meet demand. We rank the opportunity set bysubsector investment potential post-war with the upstream and E&P segments atthe highest, followed by oilfield services, then midstream and downstream refiningwith the least. We also believe natural gas has a more durable investment thesissupported by ongoing LNG infrastructure build-out driven by robust Asia-Pacificdemand and growing AI datacenter power consumption. •Strait of Hormuz access:The closure of the world’s most critical energychokepoint, through which 20% of global oil, petroleum products, and LNG transitsdaily,1is the single most important variable to watch. With around 750 ships backedup and bypass alternatives capable of offsetting only partial volumes, the paceat which commercial traffic resumes will set the trajectory for commodity pricesand energy equity performance. A swift reopening argues for a commodity pricepullback; a prolonged closure argues for continued energy outperformance and aneed for accelerated capital deployment. •The real OPEC supply buffer:OPEC+’s pledged output increase was immediatelyoffset by Iraq’s forced curtailment of up to 1.5 million bbl/day, leaving Sa udi Arabiaand the UAE to carry the burden of any supply response. With effective OPEC spa recapacity closer to 2.5 million to 3 million bbl/day versus the often-cite d theoretical5.3 million, the actual buffer is tighter than headlines suggest. Watc h whetherSaudi and UAE capacity, alongside a US shale response to prices now running$8-$12/bbl above those from early February, proves sufficient to stabilize marketsor whether Brent pushes toward $90-$100. •Breadth of Gulf infrastructure damage:The conflict risk extends well beyondIran. Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery has already been precautionarily shut,and Qatar, supplying roughly 20% of global LNG, has halted production entirely,2sending European TTF up 30% and Asian JKM up 45%. Whether attacks onthird-party Gulf infrastructure escalate, stabilize, or cease will determine both theduration of the natural gas price shock and the ultimate scale of the rebuildinginvestment opportunity once the conflict resolves. •The pace of global inventory draws:We entered 2026 with a meaningfullyoversupplied oil market, with the EIA projecting inventory builds of 3.1 million bbl/day through the year. That buffer is now the market’s primary shock absorber. Therate at which inventories are drawn down will signal whether the supply disruptionis manageable or structural and will serve as OPEC’s key calibration tool. •Duration and end-state of the conflict:The timeline is the master variablegoverning all others. US President Donald Trump has communicated plansfor an initial operation of four to five weeks while Israel has signaled a longercampaign potentially aimed at regime change. A short, decisive conflict producesa commodity spike and retreat with a modest acceleration of the energy securityinvestment thesis. A prolonged conflict, particularly one ending in Iranian regimeinstability, dramatically expands the opportunity set across the upstream, oilfieldservices, and midstream infrastructure sectors at a time when the industry wasalready structurally underinvested before the first strike was launched. War erupts after months of rising tension with Iran On January 21, 2026, as tensions with Iran escalated, we published an analyst note,The Elevated Oil Stakes of Iranian Stability, outlining the implications of a regionaldisruption for global energy markets. Today, after the United States launchedOperation Epic Fury, major coordinated military strikes with Israel against Iran, we arepublishing a follow-up note as a guide for oil & gas investors to navigate the rapidlyevolving situation. Since the attacks started, Brent, the global oil benchmark, has jumped app roximately8% to $78/barrel (bbl), while US WTI crude prices have risen by 11% to $75/bbl. Ma nyexperts are calling for Brent prices to exceed $90 or even $100 if the conflict pe rsists.This would reignite inflation fears and raise recession risks. On the natu ral gas side,the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the primary benchmark for European n atural gas,has reached $12.50/million British Thermal Units (MMBtu), u