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Distributional Impacts ofInflation Accounting forBehavioral Effects andReal Assets Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Alberto Tumino WP/26/22 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and arepublished to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and donot necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMFmanagement. 2026FEB IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets*Prepared by Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Alberto Tumino Authorized for distribution by Davide Furceri and Rodrigo CerdaFebruary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper analyzes the redistributive effects of inflation across 18 European economies from2021:Q3 to 2022:Q2, using unique micro-datasets for this country sample. We estimate inflation’s impact onhousehold welfare through the consumption basket, income, and wealth channels. Our main contribution isincorporating real assets into the wealth channel and accounting for behavioral responses to inflation in boththe income and wealth channels. These factors significantly alter inflation’s distributional effects compared toprevious literature. The inflation shock is estimated to have caused an average welfare loss equivalent to 18.5percent of annual household income across our sample, with households in the poorest income quintilessuffering the largest losses. Cross-country differences also widen when real assets are incorporated, with a feweconomies even showing welfare gains for some or all quintiles because house prices rose faster than inflation. Distributional Impacts of InflationAccounting for Behavioral Effectsand Real Assets Prepared by Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico Mejía, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Alberto Tumino Contents ____________________________________________________________________________________ 3 GLOSSARY I. INTRODUCTION________________________________________________________________________________ 4 A. Channels description and methodology of the analysis ________________________________________ 6B. Analytical Representation of the Channels______________________________________________________ 7C. Data Sources and Assumptions________________________________________________________________ 10 A. Inflation composition __________________________________________________________________________ 12B. Well-Being Effect from the Consumption Basket Channel _____________________________________ 13 A. Mechanical Effect______________________________________________________________________________ 13B. Behavioral Effects ______________________________________________________________________________ 14 V. WEALTH CHANNEL __________________________________________________________________________ 15 A. Wealth Channel Including Financial Wealth Only______________________________________________ 15B. Wealth Channel Including Real Assets _________________________________________________________ 16 VI. DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS COMBINING THE THREE CHANNELS ________________________ 18 A. Distributional Effects Considering Financial Wealth Only______________________________________ 18B. Distributional Effects When Accounting for Real Assets _______________________________________ 19 VII. CONCLUSION _______________________________________________________________________________ 21 FIGURES AND TABLES __________________________________________________________________________ 23 ANNEX A. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WITH MARKET PRICE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY _________ 40 A.1. Alternative Assumption Including Only Market Price Effects in the Wealth Channel ________ 40A.2. Wealth Channel and Combined Well-Being Effect with Financial Assets Under Price AdjustmentsOnly ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 41A.3. Combined Well-Being Effect Including Real Assets Under Alternative Second-Round EffectAssumption_______________________________________________________________________________________ 41 ANNEX B. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ___________________________________________________________ 47 REFERENCES___________________________________________________________________________________ 48 Glossary BELBelgiumCYPCyprusCOICOPClassification of Individual Consumption by PurposeECBEuropean Central BankESPSpainESTEstoniaEMDEEmerging Markets and Developing EconomiesFINFinlandFRAFranceHRVCroatiaGRCGreeceHBSHousehold Budget SurveyHFCSHousehold Finance and Consumption SurveyHICPHarmonised Index of Consumer PricesIMFInternational Monetar