2025年美国关税对企业出口行为的影响：来自亚洲海关数据的证据（英）

EVIDENCE FROM ASIAN CUSTOMS DATA Ritsuko Iseki, Daisuke Miyakawa, and Shigehiro Shinozaki ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Impact of the 2025 United States Tariffs on Firm ExportBehavior: Evidence from Asian Customs Data Ritsuko Iseki (ritsuko@utecon.net) is a researcherat UTokyo Economic Consulting. Daisuke Miyakawa(damiyak@waseda.jp) is a professor at WasedaUniversity. Shigehiro Shinozaki (sshinozaki@adb.org)is a senior economist at the Economic Researchand Development Impact Department, AsianDevelopment Bank. Ritsuko Iseki, Daisuke Miyakawa,and Shigehiro Shinozaki No. 838 | February 2026 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS260064-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS260064-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports,concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from sixselected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first fewmonths after tariffs were announced, export prices fell slightly, compressing profit margins, whilethe values and export quantities were not largely affected. In terms of the extensive margin, therewas on average no systematic increase in short-run exit from exports to the US. Second,exporters of products with higher (lower) demand elasticity lowered prices before tariffs to a larger(smaller) extent. Third, based on Philippine export customs data, micro, small, and medium-sizedenterprises (MSMEs) showed more uniform and deeper price cuts that resulted in lower exit rateson average even as their market access admittedly weakened for easily substituted products. Incontrast, larger firms continued participation using more flexible and product specific adjustments.Together, these results suggest that tariffs substantially compressed margins among MSMEs overthe short run in order to maintain US export levels. Keywords:tariffs, firm dynamics, heterogeneity, demand elasticity, MSME exports, global supplychain JEL codes:D22, F13, F14, L25 1. Introduction Exports, foreign direct investment, and/or cross-border outsourcing are major drivers of economicgrowth. As we have seen in many developed countries, such as Japan, foreign market exposurethrough exports, for example, allows firms that already excel in productivity (Melitz 2003) whenthey begin exporting drastically expand sales, and thus domestic employment. Foreign marketexposure further provides an opportunity for firms to familiarize themselves with various localcustomer needs and improve both productivity and produc