GenAI对工作替代的预期：对工人经济前景和行为的影响（英）

BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topicalinterest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of theirauthors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org).©Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may bereproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 1020-0959 (print)ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Expecting Job Replacement by GenAI: Effects onWorkers’ Economic Outlook and Behavior*Yusuke Aoki†Joon Suk Park‡Yuya Takada§Koji Takahashi¶AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between individuals’ expectations of job re-placement by generative AI (GenAI) and their macroeconomic outlooks and behaviors.Using online surveys combined with randomized experiments conducted in the U.S.and Japan, we derive the following findings about the effects of expecting greater jobreplacement due to GenAI. First, in both the U.S. and Japan, respondents revise theirbeliefs after receiving information about GenAI’s job replacement ratios. Second, inJapan, such an expectation leads to an increase in inflation expectations driven by a risein investment. Third, it increases respondents’ willingness to use GenAI in workplacesin Japan. Fourth, in the U.S., expectations of greater job replacement amplify concernsabout weaker short-term labor demand and reduced skill requirements, particularlyamong more educated respondents. In addition, these respondents anticipate lowerinvestment, while less educated respondents expect higher investment.Keywords: Generative Artificial intelligence, labor market, inflation, productivity.JEL Classification codes: E24, E31, O30*Previously circulated under the title ”From Perception to Expectation:The Role of GenAI Job Re-placement in Shaping Economic Outlooks and Behavioral Views.” The authors thank Jon Frost, LeonardoGambacorta, Shingo Watanabe, Daisuke Ikeda, Pawel Adrjan, I ˜naki Aldasoro, Guillermo Gallacher, PriscillaKoo Wilkens, Kumar Jegarasasingam, Yuko Ueno, Takuji Fueki, Kozo Ueda, Munechika Katayama andparticipants at the seminars at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank of Japan, and Waseda Uni-versity, and at the 26th Macro Conference and 1st CAM-Risk conference. Joon Suk Park and Koji Takahashiworked on this paper while working as Visiting Economists at the BIS. The views expressed in this paperare those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of BIS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Korea,Indeed, Re Data Science Co., Ltd., and Indeed Recruit Partners Co., Ltd. The survey was funded by IndeedRecruit Partners Co. Ltd.†Indeed. E-mail: yaoki@indeed.com‡Bank of Korea. Email: parkjs@bok.or.kr§ReData Science Co.,Ltd.and Specially Appointed Researcher,Indeed Recruit Partners Co.,Ltd. Email: yuyatakada@redata.co.jp¶Bank of Japan. Email: kouji.takahashi-2@boj.or.jp1 1Introduction“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”— Alan KayThe rapid advances in generative AI (GenAI) have sparked significant interest and promptedwidespread speculation about its transformative potential. However, the high level of un-certainty surrounding GenAI has fueled ongoing debate about its economic impact. Thisdiscussion becomes especially heated when it concerns AI’s effect on the labor market.This intense debate shapes public expectations about AI’s impact on the economy.Asrecent studies on the role of expectations suggest, these perceptions can influence actualbehavior, which in turn affects economic outlooks. For example, positive views on AI’simpact can encourage its adoption, further boosting productivity and investment. Con-versely, negative perspectives may hinder AI’s use and learning, potentially resulting insmaller effects on the economy. As the importance of expectations about AI’s impact iswell recognized, many surveys have been conducted focusing on people’s views regard-ing AI’s impact on the labor market. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are nostudies examining the role of expectations about AI in shaping people’s economic outlookand behavior.To address this gap, we conducted a survey on perceptions of AI’s effect on the labormarket, along with randomized experiments in the United States and Japan. Specifically,we divided respondents into two treatment groups. The first group was provided withinformation from an expert analysis that GenAI would replace 14% of current jobs, whilethe second group was informed that AI could replace 47% of jobs based on the estimatesby Briggs and Kodnani (2023) and Frey and Osborne (2017).1We then asked participantsabout their expectations regarding the job replacement ratio before the treatment (referredto as “prior beliefs”), followed by their updated expectations after the treatment (referred toas “posterio