伊朗战争：对商业的影响

UpdateGlobal – 9 April 2026 The US-Iran ceasefire agreement shouldbe viewed positively but with caution. Theceasefire has halted the destruction of Global Economic Impacts– If shipping through the Strait ofHormuz remains sharply constrained for months to come, or iffighting and destruction of energy production resumes, globaleconomic impacts could become serious – possibly reachingsome level of “demand destruction”, a sustained drop in However, a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikelyin the near term, which will continue to constrain supplychains and the Gulf’s contributions to the global economy. Thestatus of the ceasefire remains in doubt at the time of writingbecause of a difference between Iran and the US/Israelover whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Iran’s positionon Lebanon appears to be supported by Pakistan, whichmediated the ceasefire, but Israel is adamant that its actionsin Lebanon are unaffected by the US-Iran agreement. If this Beyond Shipping– Air freight through Gulf airports willresume more quickly and robustly than maritime. Expats whoevacuated are unlikely to return until there is more clarity ona longer-term settlement, inhibiting the resumption of manybusiness activities. Gulf states will focus on quick rebuildingof damaged buildings and infrastructure, more pipelines to Diplomacy– As the conflict shifts from the military to thediplomatic arena, it will be important to assess how thenegotiations are organized, including who will negotiatefor each side, where, and in what formats. Pakistan, whichhas strong relationships with China and the US, and hasmaintained a relationship with its neighbor Iran, has emergedas the key enabling country in finding a way forward. Current Status of the Strait– The operating system for the Strait ofHormuz is of prime importance, given the impact its closurehad on shipping, insurance and many industries that depend on Gulf energy and byproducts. Short-term arrangements willlikely increase the flow of shipping, including throughad hocpayments and arrangements by some countries,but full reopening is likely to be elusive. Major shippingcompanies will likely take the opportunity to retrieve tankersand cargo ships trapped inside the Persian Gulf, if they Influencing Negotiations– World leaders will seekto influence the negotiations to protect their countries’economic, commercial and security interests, includingvisiting Washington DC to meet President Donald Trump. Bottom Line– Our bottom-line prediction from last week’sreport held up well: “While fighting could subside in thecoming weeks, a clear resolution that fully reopens theStrait of Hormuz to energy exports, food imports and thatencourages an early return of expat executives and workers to Sector Analysis Agriculture The agricultural sector is also facing severe disruptiondue to the rising costs of fertilizers like nitrogen, urea andammonia, which is already impacting American farmers’planting decisions. Farmers are shifting to more soybeansover corn primarily due to lower production costs, especially Supply chain pressures have intensified in recent weeks, withthe Logistics Managers Index (LMI) rising to 65.7 in March, itstightest constriction since May 2022, after Russia’s full-scaleinvasion of Ukraine. This is well above the neutral 50 threshold Shipping and Logistics Adjustments in the logistics sector are likely to continuefor some time, despite the ceasefire. Global inventories arelean, leaving firms with fewer goods to absorb potentialsupply shocks, while transportation capacity is tight. These Mining and Heavy Industry Mining and other heavy industry operating diesel generatorsand equipment has and will continue to see disruption dueto supply shortages and price increases of fuel. This impactis especially pronounced in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa,where mining operations often lack access to local power For shipping, the economic impact has been magnifiedby the extended period of the disruptions in the Strait ofHormuz. Over 34,000 ships were diverted during the first fourweeks of the conflict, effectively shuttering most shippingactivity from the Persian Gulf. Now that the activity might What Next? Despite the ceasefire, regional instability and tensions willpersist; political disagreements may delay full normalizationof shipping and production in the region. Ensuring ongoingstability will be a necessary first step ahead of the reopeningoperations. Buyers and insurers will likely remain cautiousuntil long-term stability is established. Beyond security inthe region, the “domino effect” of logistics planning willtake time to fully reset. Obtaining contracts and investmentsand providing an environment for insurers and shippers to Even if the ceasefire quickly reopens the strait to cargoshipping traffic, the insurance market behind these vesselswill be much slower to act. Restoring large-scale shippingthrough the Strait of Hormuz depends on tanker ownersregaining c