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能源峰会要点:加速意愿有限,伊朗战争对离岸业务造成冲击,海湾在岸业务相对未受影响

化石能源 2026-04-02 美银证券 晓燚
报告封面

Energy Summit Takeaways:Limitedappetite to accelerate 02Aprll2026 Iran war hurts offshore,Gulf onshorerelativelyunscathed United StatesOil and Gas Saudi/UAEoffshore&to lesserextentKuwait.HAL,HP,NESR,PTEN,XPROall said thatkey onshoremarkets i.e.,Saudi,UAE,Oman are all pretty closeto normal.Note,though,(Strait of Hormuz),logistics can impact operations.Also,while freight&insurance costshave risen, operations have generally continued &1Q margin pressure should be modest.Importantly.NESR&HPnoted that conversations on planned incremental work continue Kalei AkamineResearchAnatystBofAS17132477880kaletakarnineQbolacainit SaurabhPantResearch'AnalystBoTAS16468550199sturabh.pantZopbofacom Publiclytraded E&P'sarewatching carefully... With oil prices surging on the impasse at the Strait of Hormuz, the thematic question forthelong-term implications of the conflict-specifically,whether it will keep oil priceselevated dueto prolonged disruption or ongoing inventory drawdowns.This uncertaintyeffectively buys producers time to assess the situation;no one wants to be thefirst topeaceagreement or thereopening ofthe strait.OVV,CHRD,MTDR, HPK, CRC are noexception, Companies are generallyhighlighting uncertainty around the duration of theconflictas theprimaryreason forstickingwiththeoriginal 2026plan,with secondaryconcerns. tied to weak gas prices (Permian specific) and higher service costs. Noah HungnessResearch.AnalystBofAS-1832 3415807noahhungness(pbofatam) Lauren LeGrosResearch AnalystBoIAS-17134092491lauren.egras@bofa.com ...whileOFScompaniesare seeingpositiveactivitytrends However,OFS companies citedexamples of Private E&Psadding somefracactivity(completing DUCs)+ inquiring for rigs.Frac market likely benefits first given shortercontract commitments (generally3-6-month pricing reopeners),&tighterthangenerallycapacity.&that pricing on active assets would have to move higher before they considerworked in<1year (te,can comeback with minimal capex).which would support higherpricing if/asdemand comesback. Highlights:OVVtoppick,INPEXfarm-inposforTBN XOP (38%)andthe XLE(32%),but wethinkthisisonlythebeginning of a re-rating-FCFclean balance sheet (O.6x net debt to forward EBITDA). Our discussion with COO GregGivens highlighted O's recent operating wins, including third bench delineation atParamount and improved runtimes contributing to higher condy output,giving usconfidencethat there's upside to theNuVista deal. ReiterateTop Pick.INPEX farm-in hasreadthroughvaluetoTamboran-ats2,o0operacre,thePhase2farmoutcouldbeworth2027 maintenance case as conservative; while permitting reform in CA recenters interestin CRC's deep conventional resource base, which has decades of runway. Contents Spring Summit Takeaways3California Regouarces (CRC)3Chord Energy (CHRD)4HighPeak Energy (HPK)5infinity Natural Resources6Matador Resources (MTDR)7Ovintiv(OW)8Tamboran(TBN)9 SpringSummitTakeawaysCaliforniaResources(CRC) Francisco Leon, President and Chief Executive Officer The permitting landscape in California has changed. With SB 237passed lastSeptemberand effective on January1"2026,producersarenowreceiving newoiland gas permits through theKern County EIR (environmental impact report).Thesetargets will fold into CRC's second half drilling programand contribute toafirmercapital dollars than expected2026capital is S430-470mn comparedtoour$570mnexpectation. Not onlydid CRC guide a more capital efficient 2026program,but it alsoprovidedamaintenancecase for2027.D&C andworkoversareexpected torunS485mn in2027,up from-5305-320mn in 2026.Note:weexpecta fullyloaded capitalprogram includingfacilities capital to run-S600mnin2027 compared toS430-470mn in2026.The2027caseassumes7rigs,up from4in2026.Inourview,thisis a conservative guide-wewould expect to see1-2%oil growth on a7rigprogram.Conservatismmaystemfrom CRC'stertiaryproject skew-wheresteamand water flood projects have a delayed payout, with first oil 6-9months aftercapital is deployed. SB237waspassedonthebasisthatmorewellpermitswouldhaveapositiveimpact on fuel affordability.while the bear case for oil has effectively been wipedout bythe impasse atthe Strait of Hormuz.In that context, investors are interestedinwhether CRC will accelerateoil production.Inour conversation, CRC made nowith2027plans. WhileCRC's.reportedproved reservesstandat654mmboeand 2Pat1.2billionboesupporting impressive resenve life estimates of 13 and 23 years, these areintentionally conservative estimates under SEC rules. Recall in the 2018 Analyst Daydeck,CRC called out original oil equlvalent in placeat 5obillion barrels.Atconservative recoveryfactor of just 30%,this points to 15billionbarrelsrecoverable,less1obillionbarrelsproduced,pointsto5bilionboe.ofremainingresource -even before Berry and Aera are considered. Clean firm resources are increasingly recognized in SB 100 and IRP modeling asimportant for long-term reliability and cost control, though these analyses typicallytreat them as generic firm or baseload technol