科技日报-0523 美股收盘-20260525

TMT BREAKOUTMAY 23, 2026∙PAID Goodafternooonevening.QQQs +40bpswithSOX +2%leading us higher. Marketnow placing 100% odds on a 25bps rate hike before the end of the year.Waller:"I canno longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,and that is especially true if measures of inflation expectations, some of which haverisen lately, show signs of becoming unanchored." 傍晚好。纳指100 ETF (QQQs)上涨40个基点，费城半导体指数(SOX)上涨2%领涨。市场⽬前预计年底前加息25个基点的概率为100%。沃勒表示：“如果通胀不能尽快减弱，我将不再排除未来进⼀步加息的可能性，尤其是如果通胀预期指标（其中⼀些近期有所上升）显示出失控迹象的话。” BTC -2%. Yields mixed with 2year rising 4bps while long end of the curve dippedslightly.Oil +1%. BTC下跌2%。收益率表现不⼀，2年期国债收益率上涨4个基点，⽽⻓端收益率略有下降。原油上涨1%。 We’ll be away from our screens for the long weekend, so wanted to get this out as lotsof interesting things to call out today. 由于⻓周末我们将不在电脑前，所以想趁现在发布这篇内容，因为今天有很多有趣的现象值得关注。 Let’s get straight to it… 让我们直接进⼊正题…… AI/SEMIS After going through AI Semi charts heading into the weekend, there are someinteresting divergences to note. 在周末前梳理了AI半导体的⾛势图后，有⼀些有趣的背离现象值得注意。 First,SOXhitting new highs but on significant negative RSI divergence: ⾸先，费城半导体指数（SOX）创下新⾼，但出现了明显的RSI负背离： There’s a long list of lot of names hitting new highs: analogs like TXN, ON, NXPI; CPUdarlings like AMD ARM also; QCOM NOK DELL HPE BE ALAB & MRVL with newclosing highs today as well. CSCO with nice follow through to new highs following theirprint. A handful of these names up double digits today. 有⼀⻓串个股创下新⾼：模拟芯⽚股如TXN、ON、NXPI；CPU宠⼉如AMD、ARM；QCOM、NOK、DELL、HPE、BE、ALAB和MRVL今天也创下了收盘新⾼。CSCO在财报发布后表现稳健，继续冲向新⾼。其中⼏只股票今天涨幅达两位数。 However, the list of names not hitting new highs along with the broader index is alsolong, and interestingly contain many AI semi beta names which led us higher through the fall and off the bottom in early April: 然⽽，未能随⼤盘指数同步创下新⾼的名单也很⻓，有趣的是，其中包含许多在去年秋季以及今年4⽉初触底反弹过程中领涨的AI半导体⾼⻉塔值个股： TSM, NVDA, AVGO, INTC, Optical (LITE, COHR, CIEN, GLW), HDDs, Memory, CLS,TER, GEV, ANET, ADI, MCHP, VRT. TSM、NVDA、AVGO、INTC、光通信（LITE、COHR、CIEN、GLW）、硬盘（HDDs）、存储、CLS、TER、GEV、ANET、ADI、MCHP、VRT。 Other negative tea leaves:GFSwith a shooting star,WOLFnew highs then finishingnear lows today.SNDKlower highs on negative RSI divergence (HDDs, MU, INTC anda lot of others in the above list look similar): 其他负⾯迹象：GFS出现流星线，WOLF创下新⾼后今⽇收盘接近低点。SNDK在RSI负背离的情况下⾼点下移（HDD、MU、INTC以及上述列表中的许多其他股票看起来也类似）： So, a very interesting bifurcation here among the broader AI semi group that wehaven’t seen since the lows in late March; we’ll be on our toes early next week to seewhich direction we want to go. 因此，在更⼴泛的AI半导体板块中，出现了⼀个⾃3⽉底低点以来从未⻅过的、⾮常有趣的⾛势分化；我们将在下周初保持警惕，观察市场将选择哪个⽅向。 Does leadership in AI semis get narrower and narrower with names in the formerbucket continuing to rocket higher?Do the names in the latter list catch up and followSOX to new highs or does the latter list weigh down the overall trade?No answers yet,but we think action early next week should be telling. AI半导体板块的领导地位是否会变得越来越窄，仅靠前⼀类股票继续飙升？后⼀类列表中的股票是会追赶并跟随SOX创下新⾼，还是会拖累整体交易？⽬前还没有答案，但我们认为下周初的⾛势应该会给出启示。 Let’s get to the roundup from today: 让我们来看看今天的综述： DELL +17%on a few sell side notes: ISI added to tactical perform saying they seeupside to both the quarter and FY27 guidance, driven by stronger AI serverdemand, resilient enterprise PC/storage/networking trends, and increasingdeployments across the Dell AI Factory ecosystem (now serving 5,000+customers). DELL⼤涨17%，受⼏份卖⽅研报推动：ISI将其列⼊战术表现名单，称季度业绩和2027财年指引均有上⾏空间，这主要得益于更强劲的AI服务器需求、富有韧性的企业级PC/存储/⽹络趋势，以及Dell AI Factory⽣态系统（⽬前服务5,000多家客户）部署量的增加。 Wells Fargo materially raised #s across the board and believes DELL’s$50B FY27AI server target remains conservative, with potential upside toward$60-65Bsupported by stronger CSP/neocloud demand and ASP expansion. 富国银⾏（Wells Fargo）全⾯⼤幅上调了各项数据，并认为DELL设定的2027财年500亿美元AI服务器⽬标仍然保守，在强劲的CSP/新云（neocloud）需求和平均售价（ASP）扩张的⽀持下，有望上探⾄600-650亿美元。 Cleveland was out positive saying partners appread well ahead of plan driven bypull forward and large AI server shipments while DELL is effectively passingthrough costs by refreshing quotes every 7-14 days.In addition, Lenovo which was up 20% overnight and had a positive print where margins and PCs came inbetter than expected. Cleveland发布了积极报告，称在需求提前释放和⼤型AI服务器出货的推动下，合作伙伴的进度似乎远超计划，同时DELL通过每7-14天更新⼀次报价，有效地转嫁了成本。此外，Lenovo隔夜上涨20%，其财报表现积极，利润率和PC业务均优于预期。 Memory underperformed (MU -1.4%/ SNDK -4.5%) as Samsung strike getsresolved (means no supply disruption there) and some Asian press had somethings to say about Chinese Memory players. Here’s cwnewsroom via Jukan: 存储芯⽚板块表现不佳（MU -1.4% / SNDK -4.5%），原因是三星罢⼯得到解决（意味着供应不会中断），且⼀些亚洲媒体对中国存储⼚商发表了评论。以下是Jukan转引的cwnewsroom消息： We don’t think China is an issue in the next couple years, but noise likely doesn’t goaway given CXMT and YMTC close to filing their IPO prospectus. 我们认为未来⼏年中国市场不会成为问题，但考虑到⻓鑫存储（CXMT）和⻓江存储（YMTC）即将提交IPO招股书，相关的市场杂⾳可能不会消失。 NOK +9%to new highs as MS was out positive raising PT and reiterating their toppick as the stock continues to re-rate from a traditional