安联社会韧性指数2025：中等韧性陷阱

Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025The Middle-Resilience Trap Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-8Uneven and polarized: resilience consolidates, slowly Page 9-12 Energy price shock triggered by conflict in theMiddle East will put resilience gains to the test Page 13-18 Four clusters of social resilience Page 19-24 Macro-financial and country-risk relevance ofsocial resilience Page 25-26 Long-term strategies vs. unforeseendisruptions Page 27-31 Appendix: country ranking and methodology ExecutiveSummary •In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive– albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remainspronounced.The global average rose from 47.4 in 2024 to 47.9 (on a 0-100scale) across 171 economies, driven by lower imported inflation pressures andgreater currency stability in Emerging Asia and several advanced economies.Firmer governance was another driving force, including institutionalstabilization in parts of Emerging Asia and Central Europe. At the sametime, weaker social cohesion in the Middle East, Emerging Europe and high-income countries continued to weigh on social resilience. Northern Europeaneconomies lead the ranking, with Finland (1st, 84.3), Denmark (2nd, 83.8), andIceland (3rd, 81.4) at the top of our index. Germany (8th, 78.5), France (13th,74.7), and the UK (18th, 72.9) remain strong, while Italy (28th, 66.8) and the US(32nd, 65.3) ranked lower but stayed in the top third. China (59th, 52.5), India(81st, 46.8), Mexico (105th, 41.3), and Brazil (112th, 40.0) ranked significantlylower, with conflict-affected states like Lebanon (169th, 17.7) and South Sudan(171st, 11.8) at the bottom. Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer & Chief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com Simon KrauseEconomist, ESG & Insurancesimon.krause@allianz.com Luca MonetaSenior Economist for Emerging Marketsluca.moneta@allianz-trade.com •The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy inflation will testthe strength of social fabrics, particularly in countries such as Vietnam,Thailand, Morocco, Tunisia, and Malaysia.The SRI helps measurevulnerabilities to such exogenous shocks: countries with weaker resilienceand limited fiscal buffers could be particularly affected by higher- for- longerenergy prices. Indeed, sustained energy- price increases raise inflation(including food inflation), weaken growth and heighten political tensions,particularly where societies have limited capacity to respond. Copingmechanisms will be the pivotal, including crisis- response mechanisms,economic stabilizers, and optionality. Two clusters stand out: Low-to-midresilience economies with high exposure – including Vietnam, Thailand,Morocco, Tunisia and Malaysia – could see price spikes more easily translateinto social pressures. Meanwhile moderate- resilience countries with mediumexposure to the energy price shock – including Chile, Egypt, Serbia and SouthKorea – should be in a better position to cushion the impact of a temporaryenergy shock on social resilience. Europe is likely to be more affected than theUS given its greater reliance on imported energy, though social spending maycushion the impact. Patrick KrizanSenior Investment Stategist Ratespatrick.krizan@allianz.com Katharina UtermöhlHead of Thematic and Policy Researchkatharina.utermoehl@allianz.com Davide CornaResearch Assistant •Taking the long view, four trajectories of global progress in social resilienceemerge: low-resilience countries catching up (e.g., Romania and SaudiArabia); countries weakening further (e.g., Nigeria and Brazil); high-resilience countries consolidating strength (e.g., Germany and Finland);and countries experiencing slippage (e.g., Canada and Sweden). Somecountries seem stuck in a middle-social-resilience trap among thesediverging paths.Rankings show limited change since 2024, though Sri Lanka(+12.7pts; +39 ranks) and India (+7.8pts; +27 ranks) improved notably, whileBrazil (-8.7pts; -41 ranks) and the Czech Republic (-6.9pts; -15 ranks) saw steep declines. A cluster of advanced economies persistently scoring 65-70 – including Czechia,Hungary, Italy, the US and Japan – appears caught in a middle-SRI trap (in reference to the middle-income trap phenomenon coined by Indermit Gill and Homi Kharas in 2007). Material prosperityincreasingly coexists with political polarization and policy volatility. Prolonged stagnation in thisrange risks greater instability, weaker reform capacity and declining policy predictability, withimplications for long-term growth and sovereign risk. These tensions are increasingly visible:between 2020 and 2025, mid-resilience countries – including India, Indonesia, South Korea, the UKand the US - accounted for up to 70% of global strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) events. •Social resilience matters for macroeconomic performance, capital-market development andsovereign risk.For investors and policymakers alike, the SRI functions an both early-warningsystem a