交易驱动因素：欧洲、中东和非洲地区2026年第一季度

D E A LD R I V E R SEMEAQ1 2026 A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends Contents 1Foreword: From trade wars to kinetic wars2Outlook: EMEA heat chart3Summary: Giants feast while mid-market fasts4Spotlight: Romania5Spotlight: Poland6UK & Ireland7DACH8France9Nordics10Italy11Iberia12Benelux13CEE & SEE14Türkiye, Middle East & Africa15About this report Foreword From trade wars to kinetic wars Capital rotation The picture is not uniformly bleak. With the ECB holding rates steadyas inflation nears its 2% target, albeit with upside risks from energyprices, financing conditions remain relatively accommodative by recent Twelve months ago, the threat of punitive US tariffs dominated boardroomconversations across EMEA. While trade tensions have not disappeared,the narrative has moved on decisively. Today, the Iran conflict and itsimpact on energy markets are investors’ primary preoccupation. The near- Capital is rotating rather than retreating. Defense, cybersecurity, LNGinfrastructure, and hard commodities are all attracting premiums aslong-term imperatives shift. As supply chains reroute around the Gulf, For M&A, this disruption has potentially big implications for the mobilizationof sovereign wealth capital. Gulf funds, which have recently provided avital backstop to European dealmaking, may divert dry powder away from Outlook EMEA heat chart According to Mergermarket’s heat chart of “companies for sale” stories,the UK & Ireland commands the deepest pipeline with 480 stories,anchored by technology, media & telecoms (TMT, 116) and businessservices (76), sectors in which energy costs are operational rather than Faced with North Sea transition liabilities and grid congestion costs,infrastructure operators are seeking deep-pocketed partners to helpfund the UK’s £50bn electrification drive. However, a blow was dealt inApril when OpenAI paused its £31bn Stargate data center pledge, citing Portfolio pivot Homeward bound Türkiye, Middle East & Africa accounts for 373 stories, ranking thirdoverall. TMT leads the sector tally (56), followed by I&C (50) andfinancial services (46). Unlike 2024-25, when Mubadala and PIFtargeted UK infrastructure and German industrial assets, the Hormuzcrisis has accelerated a pre-existing pivot. Intraregional transactions DACH presents the second-deepest pool of potential transactions,with 469 “for sale” stories, dominated by 131 industrials and chemicals(I&C) stories, the single hottest sector-region concentration acrossEMEA. German manufacturers face a perfect storm of legally-bindingemissions reductions, volatile hydrocarbon costs from the Hormuz Strategic buyers are positioned to consolidate fragmented mid-marketindustrials at cyclical valuation lows and are themselves a reliablesource of deal flow. BASF’s €7.7bn coatings divestment to Carlyle At the same time, Chinese manufacturers are accelerating directinvestment into the GCC to circumvent US tariffs, with Saudi Arabia andthe UAE positioning themselves as alternative production hubs for access Industrials M&A peakingin face of Hormuz crisis Summary Giants feast while mid-market fasts Europe entered 2026 with a monetary-fiscal inflection that has eludedthe region for a decade. Fiscal policy is loosening across the bloc forthe first time since 2021, as the EU Recovery Fund deadline accelerates The dual stimulus of monetary easing and fiscal expansion has notyet revived broad risk appetite, with corporates remaining selectiveon deployment amid margin compression and geopolitical turbulence, Q1 2026’s two-speed M&A market has become a familiar sight.Transaction volume across EMEA fell 16% year-on-year to 4,310 dealannouncements, retreating to 2023 levels, yet aggregate value rose Banks, bytes, and beans Financial services M&A surged 82.1% to €82.1bn, delivering pan-Europeanbanking consolidation long promised by policymakers. TMT rose by 29.4%to €73.2bn, driven primarily by Italy’s strategic telecoms re-nationalization. Even after falling 19.9% year-on-year to 859 deal announcements,TMT retained its volume lead due to a broader decline in dealmaking.I&C activity contracted 10.2% to 652 transactions, reflecting energy- PE activity mirrored the broader market – buyout volume fell 19.7%year-on-year to 706 transactions, yet aggregate value rose 10.3% to€73.7bn as fundraising clustered among marquee names that have Champion deals The largest deal in EMEA in Q1 was McCormick’s €37.1bn acquisition ofUnilever’s food business, including Knorr and Hellmann’s, representing UniCredit’s €25.7bn bid for Commerzbank potentially marks a watershedin European banking consolidation, potentially creating a €1.1tn pan-European giant that would absorb the German government’s remaining Poste Italiane’s €21.4bn bid for TIM completes an extraordinarycircular journey: 30 years after privatization, the state postal operatoris reclaiming Italy’s national telco from KKR, which had only taken TIM Two-speed market persists in EMEAami