交易驱动因素：欧洲、中东和非洲地区2025年HY季度

A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends in 2025A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends in 2025 Contents Foreword: Tide turns as ECBgrants welcome reprieve Attractive fundamentals Conditions on the continent are improving, particularly for PE funds.The combination of compelling financing costs and comparativelyattractive EBITDA multiples for US acquirers makes Europe a lavishhunting ground. Sentiment also appears to be lifting among thiscohort of investors. A more stable political outlook in key economies,combined with proactive fiscal stimulus, is reinforcing the region’spositive fundamentals. The divergence in monetary policy between Europe and the US grewwider in H1 2025. The European Central Bank (ECB) pressed aheadwith its easing cycle, delivering two further 25-basis-point cuts inMarch and June that brought the key deposit rate down to 2.5%. This policy gap is rooted in differing economic realities. While theUS continues to defy recessionary fears, the eurozone’s recoveryremains tepid, with the latest EU forecasts putting annual growth ata fragile 0.9%. With headline inflation now stabilized around the 2%target, however, the ECB has had the room to provide further stimulusin an effort to stave off stagnation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Englandcharted a different course, holding rates steady through H1. In June,UK inflation accelerated to 3.6% annualized, the highest point sinceJanuary 2024, dashing hopes of any imminent dovish pivot from thecentral bank. This renewed confidence is reflected in the fundraising market. In awelcome development, European mid-market sponsors have enjoyeda significant rebound, securing nearly €42bn in H1, according toPitchbook data. However, this capital is concentrating into fewer,larger hands; nearly half of that total was raised by just five funds.Still, these fresh inflows of capital should somewhat support whathas been softer EMEA M&A volume. Outlook:EMEA heat chart The EMEA region’s M&A heat chart shows a clear concentration ofpotential activity in two of its largest deal hubs, DACH and the UK &Ireland, which together account for more than a third of the 2,349total ‘companies for sale’ stories tracked. By sector, telcoms, media &technology (TMT, 467 stories) and industrials & chemicals (I&C, 422)are the dominant sources of expected deal flow, reflecting the region’sdual identity as an aspiring high-tech hub and industrial powerhouse. Regionally, DACH is expected to be the most active market (438 stories),propelled largely by I&C dealmaking (133 stories). This is fueled by twomajor trends: a wave of succession-driven M&A among Germany’s famedfamily-owned ‘Mittelstand’ companies, and a sweeping restructuring ofits industrial base as it adapts to higher energy costs and a regulatoryenvironment that places an ever-greater focus on sustainability. Tech growth Even spread Across the rest of Europe, deal flow is being driven by modernization.Italy’s strength in I&C (53 ‘companies for sale’ stories) and Iberia’s focuson TMT (47) are both being supported by the strategic deploymentof EU recovery funds aimed at upgrading industrial capacity anddigital infrastructure. Close behind, the UK &Ireland market shows significant potential with405 ‘companies for sale’ stories, led by TMT opportunities (116).This pipeline is underpinned by the government’s Framework for AIand Digital Growth, launched in April to solidify the UK’s position as aEuropean AI and fintech leader. The plan includes creating AI GrowthZones and aims to increase public AI computing power 20-fold by 2030. However, it is the diverse Turkey, the Middle East, and Africa subregionthat is snapping at the heels of DACH and the UK & Ireland with339 potential deals. Notably, this market shows the most balancedsectoral distribution in EMEA. Unlike other regions dominated by asingle industry, potential deal flow here is spread across TMT (48),I&C (54), and consumer (48). This broad-based activity reflectsvarious ambitious economic diversification programs, like SaudiVision 2030, which fuel state-led investment across the gamut ofsectors, with private capital increasingly crowding-in as reformsimprove the commercial environment across the subregion. The policy is supported by fiscal enhancements, including a mergedR&D tax credit scheme – 20% credit for all qualifying spend – withbetter access for digital and fintech firms. Regulatory agility is furtherboosted through expanded “supercharged” sandboxes, led by theFinancial Conduct Authority in partnership with chipmaker Nvidia,enabling firms to safely test AI with synthetic datasets and live testenvironments. This pro-innovation and investor-friendly architecturehas the potential to accelerate M&A, attracting strategic buyers andglobal capital to the UK’s tech ecosystem. European markets moving quicklytoenhance credentials for tech innovation Summary: M&Atrips up amid tradepolicy uncertainties EMEA’s M&A momentum slowed in Q2. Boardrooms andinvestmen