2025年中国年度磋商报告

China - 2025 Acknowledgments 1. This Annual Consultation Report on China has been prepared in accordance with thefunctions of AMRO to monitor and assess the macroeconomic status and financialsoundness of its members; identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities; report these tomember authorities; and if requested, assist them in mitigating these risks through thetimely formulation of policy recommendations. This is being done in accordance withArticle 3 (a) and (b) of the AMRO Agreement. 2. This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation Visit of AMRO to Chinafrom 28 August to 12 September 2025 (Article 5 (b) of AMRO Agreement). The AMROMission team was headed by Dr Jae Young Lee, Group Head and Lead Economistand Dr Fan Zhai, Senior Economist and Deputy Mission Chief. Members include MrSuan Yong Foo,Senior Economist and Desk Economist for China; Dr Ke Ji,Economist and Co-Desk Economist for China; Dr Jerry (Xianguo) Huang, SeniorEconomist; Mr Jungsung Kim, Economist; Mr Dek Joe Sum, Fiscal Specialist; and MsYin Muyar Soe, Associate. AMRO Director Mr Yasuto Watanabe and Chief EconomistDr Dong He also participated in key policy meetings with the authorities. This AMROAnnual Consultation Report on China for 2025 was peer-reviewed by a group ofeconomists from AMRO’s Country Surveillance, Financial Surveillance, and FiscalSurveillance teams; endorsed by the Policy and Review Group; and approved by DrDong He, AMRO Chief Economist. 3. The analysis in this Report is based on information available up to 15 September2025. 4. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographicalarea, or by using the term “member” or “country” in this Report, AMRO does not intendto make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. 5. On behalf of AMRO, the Mission team wishes to thank the Chinese authorities fortheir comments on this Report, as well as their excellent meeting arrangements andwarm engagement during our visit. Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations and conclusion expressed in this Report represent theviewsof the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)and are notnecessarily those of its members. Neither AMRO nor its members shall be held responsible forany consequence of the use of the information contained herein.Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations and conclusion expressed in this Report represent theviewsof the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)and are notnecessarily those of its members. Neither AMRO nor its members shall be held responsible forany consequence of the use of the information contained herein. Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................1Executive Summary....................................................................................................................4A.Context: China’s Economic Transition to Sustainable High-Quality Growth..................7A.1Fragmented and Uneven Road of Recovery and Transition ....................................7A.2Recovery in 2025: Policy Tailwinds Confront Structural and ExternalHeadwinds................................................................................................................8A.3Rebalancing for Resilience: Laying the Foundations for High-QualityGrowth......................................................................................................................9B.Deep Dive: Disentangling the Weaknesses.......................................................................10B.1Structural Shift and Slumping Property Sector: A Drag on China’sRecovery.................................................................................................................10B.2Property Downturn and Local Fiscal Stress...........................................................12B.3Muted Demand, Ample Supply, Low Inflation.........................................................14C.A Bright Spot: Continued External Sector Resilience......................................................16Box A. China's External Balance Sheet: Emerging as a Systemic CapitalExporter..................................................................................................................17D.Outlook and Risks................................................................................................................19D.1Near-term Outlook..................................................................................................19D.2Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Challenges....................................................................20E.Short-Term Priorities: Supporting Growth and Stability Amid Economic Transition...21E.1From Stabilization to Stimulation: Rethinking the Fiscal Policy Approach.............21Box B.China’s Fiscal Space.............................................................................................22E.2Calibrating Monetary Po