中国香港2025年度磋商报告

HongKong,China-2025 Acknowledgments 1.This Annual Consultation Report onHong Kong, Chinahas been prepared in accordancewith the functions of AMRO to monitor, assess andreport on its members’ macroeconomicstatus and financial soundness, to identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities, and to assist 2.This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation of AMROwithHong Kong,ChinafromMay12-23,2025(Article 5 (b) of the AMRO Agreement).The AMRO Missionteam was headed by DrJae Young Lee, Group Head and Lead Economist. MembersincludeMrJungsung Kim, Economist and Desk Economist for Hong Kong, China;DrFanZhai,Senior Economist;Mr Suan Yong Foo,Senior Economist;Ms Vanne Khut,Economist;and Dr Chenxu Fu,AssociateEconomist.FormerAMRO Director DrKouqingLiandformerChief Economist Dr Hoe Ee Khor also participated in key policy meetings 3.The analysis in this Report is based on information available up toJune10,2025. 4.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, orby using the term “member” or “country” in this Report, AMRO does not intend to make any 5.On behalf of AMRO, the Mission team wishes to thank theHong Kong, Chinaauthoritiesfor their comments on this Report, as well as their excellentmeetingarrangements and Disclaimer:Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionexpressedinthisReportrepresenttheviewsof the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office(AMRO)and are notnecessarilythoseofitsmembers.NeitherAMROnoritsmembersshallbeheldresponsiblefor Acknowledgments......................................................................................................1Executive Summary....................................................................................................3A.Recent Developments and Outlook.......................................................................5A.1Real Sector Developments and Outlook.....................................................5Box A. Revitalizing Hong Kong’s Retail Sector: Some Recent Efforts and Initiatives7A.2External Sector and the Balance of Payments............................................8 B.Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Challenges...............................................................13 B.1Near-term Risks to the Macroeconomic Outlook.......................................14B.2Longer-term Challenges and Vulnerabilities..............................................17 C.Policy Discussions and Recommendations.......................................................18 C.1Calibrating Macroeconomic Policies to Fortify Fuller Recovery.................18C.2Preventing Disorderly Adjustment in the Property Sector..........................19C.3Achieving a Strong and Sustainable Fiscal Position in the Medium Term.20C.4Addressing Labor Market Challenges Amid an Aging Population..............22 Appendices...............................................................................................................27 Appendix 1. Selected Figures for Major Economic Indicators.................................27Appendix 2. Selected Economic Indicators for Hong Kong, China..........................33Appendix 3. Balance of Payments..........................................................................34Appendix 4. Statement of Central/ General Government Operations......................35Appendix 5. Monetary Survey.................................................................................36 Annexes: Selected Issues........................................................................................40 1. HongKong’sRetailSector:KeyDriversandPolicyImplications........................402. Assessing the Fallout: Trump’s Trade War and its Impact on Hong Kong’sEconomy................................................................................................................483. Advancing Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in HongKong...............................53 Executive Summary 1.Amid heightened uncertainty,Hong Kong,China’s1economy is contending with a complexbalance of headwinds and tailwinds.The most immediate and pressing concern stems fromthe city's sensitivity to global trade, particularlythe tensionsbetween the US and China andthe associated slowdown in global trade. However, within this challenging environment, Hong 2.Hong Kong’s economy is expected to sustain steady but moderate growth, with projectionsof 2.1 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026.The recovery in domestic consumption mayremain subdued due to a shift in spending patterns among Hong Kong residents. Investmentis expected to recover slowly amidweaknessin the property sector. Externally, if trade 3.While US-China tensions pose external risks, their direct impact on Hong Kong is likelylimited, with related re-exports making up only around6percent.Hong Kong has traditionallyserved as a trade hub, bridging Mainland China and the rest of the world. As re-exportsbetween the US and China routed through Hong Kong account for only a