液化空气集团2026年第一季度：业绩指引为谁而设？

+44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales AI.FP Air Liquide 1Q26: Who is the guidance for? Take:AirLiquide1Q26-A10bpsmiss;business asusual).Thecontroversyfor investorsisaroundthe2Q26guide,whereCEOFrancoisJackowindicatedontheconferencecallthatcomparablegrowthwouldbesimilarto1Q26,whereasthemarketwasexpectinganacceleration.Weunderstandtheneedforconservatism-thereisamajorconflicthappeningand customers listento conference calls-butouranalysis indicates someverybearishassumptionsarerequiredaroundAsianandEuropeanvolumestogettoc.2%comparablegrowth.We are notquite so bearishandreiterate our Outperform rating. Webelievewe need to see a volume decline of c.-14%across Asiato assumecomparablegrowthreturnsto2%in2Q26(Exhibit1).Asmanagementacknowledgedon the conference call, there are opportunities and challenges fromthe Iran-related conflict.Industrial Merchant pricing is very likely to increase globally. Electronics growth is likely toimprove,given the easierEquipment and Installation comps.Wealso expectthe Americasgrow volumes stronglyto fillthe Middle-East supply gap.If wethen assume Healthcareremains solid, and the helium supplysituation slightly eases as Qatar restartpart of theirLNG train, then volumes in Asia and Europe are the potential weak point. We model volumedeclines of-3.8%,soforecast2QG&S comparablegrowth of 2.9%. Wethereforeconsiderthe2Q=1Qcomparablegrowthguidanceconservative.Weseetwo main reasons for Air Liquide's caution around their guidance. 1) There is a possibility ofworsening shutdowns of industrial capacity across Europe and Asia.The last deliveries ofships that passed the Strait in February arebeing made and reserves of key rawmaterialsstuck behind the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. oil, naphtha, natural gas) are dwindling. 2) Air Liquide'scustomersmayreactnegativelyifthecompanyistoobullish,givensomedeliverieshavebeen delayed.We are more positive given that webelieve the more developed industrial partsof Asia will exhibit resilience-similarto Europe in2O22, where volumes decreased HSD, butmerchant pricing increased by over 20%.And we are less likelyto field angry calls from AirLiquide's customers. InvestmentImplications comparablegrowthtoreturnto2%Gas&Services ComparableGrowth-ResilientEMEA(vols-2.5%),WeakAPAC EXHIBIT 6: Efficiency benefits by Air Liquide have been stepping up KEYRESEARCH INDUSTRIALGASMAJORS :21Apr2026-Chemicals1Q26Preview:PokerFaces : 20 Apr 2026 - Chemicals: Positioning for an Iran-related cycle and upgrading Arkema to Market-Perform13Mar2026-Global lndustrial Gases&Semis:Assessingthehelium impact . 12 Feb 2026 - Chemicals: There is still share price upside if we see a cyclical recovery -a scenario analysis: 8 Jan 2026 - Chemicals Outlook 2026: A slow start, but there could be considerable upside potential. Downgrading Solvayto Market-Perform.1Dec2025-TheLongView:HowIndustrialGasesrevenuescancompoundatthemagic5%through2030:130ct2025-Chemicals3Q25Preview:Justified lowexpectations13 Aug 2025-European Chemicals: War and Peace ll-Refreshing our Ukraine war scenarios10 Jul 2025-Reflectionson the European ChemicalsActionPlan:First aid,but no cure.27May2025-Chemicals:Amongst thetariff turmoil. 9 April 2025 - Industrial Gas Majors - It's a big world, after all but gases don't travel so "Hold Tough" and Buy :28Apr2026-Quick Take:Air Liquide1Q26-A10bpsmiss;businessasusual .2Apr 2026-Air Liquide-Key Themes Ahead of 1Q26 Results:23Feb2026-AirLiquide2H25:More growthandmoremargin improvement: 20 Feb 2026-Quick Take: Air Liquide 2H25 - Solid execution and electronics returns to growth.28 Jan 2026- Air Liquide: Best European ldea First Quarter 2026-Improving growth that isn't priced in.Outperform3Dec2025-QuickTake:AdaywithAirLiquide attheSDCPremiumReview.29Oct2025-Air Liquide 3Q25:Typically solid,and potentially the growth trough.25Sep 2025-Air Liquide attheBernstein European IndustrialsForum:Reassuringly Consistent.22 Aug 2025 - Quick Take: Air Liquide acquires DiG Airgas -a high price, but a worthy purchase·30 Jul 2025 -Air Liquide 1H25:"This is just the beginning":28 Jul 2025-Air Liquide:Marginal Gains.29May 2025-Quick Take: Air Liquide Americas CEO at the SDC. 24 April 2025 -Air Liquide - Steady as she goes·21February 2025-Air Liquide-Pushing the margin again...14February2025-AirLiquide-WeseetheFY24EBITmargin+110bpand scopeforc.50Obpmorefromthere LINDE ·25Feb2026-QuickTake:Linde-KeyTakeawaysfrombreakfastwiththeCFO19Feb 2026-Linde 4Q25: Earnings Aristocrat, and well positioned for all macro scenarios.5Feb2026-QuickTake:Linde4Q25-28Adj.EPSbeats inarow,andsolidnear-termguidance . 31 Oct 2025 - Quick Take: Linde 3Q25-27 Adj. EPS beats in a row, but a guidance narrow rather than raise4Aug2025-Linde2Q25:EarningsAristocrat1Aug2025-QuickTake:Linde2Q25-26EPSbeatsinarow,andwhat's3centsbetween friends?.22July2025-Linde:Earningsaristocrat2Q25-we see the26thquarterof consecutiveEPSbeats. 4 Jun 2025 - Linde: A day with the CEO at the SDC-"The value is visible".. in the field,