工业硅5月报：5月可能出现投机拉动的上涨，逢低买入

第一部分前言概要.................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2【交易逻辑】...................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2第二部分基本面情况...........................................................................................................................................3一、行情回顾...................................................................................................................................................3二、需求：5月工业硅需求环比增加............................................................................................................5三、供应：5月西南硅厂复产带动工业硅产量增加....................................................................................8四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空..............................................................................10第三部分后市展望及策略推荐.........................................................................................................................11免责声明.................................................................................................................................................................13 工业硅5月报 5月可能出现投机拉动的上涨，逢低买入 第一部分前言概要 【供需展望】 交易咨询业务资格： 【【【【[2011]1428【研究员：【【【电话：邮箱：chenhansong_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F03129697投资咨询资格证号：Z0020351 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3-5【【【【【【65%【【【DMC【【【【【【【【【【【5【DMC【【【【4【【【【18【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4000【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【4【【【1【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 作者承诺 【交易逻辑】 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8000【【【【【8800【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9500【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8500【9500【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【策略推荐】 1.【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 2.【【【【【3.【【【【【【【【【【【风险提示：煤炭价格超预期变化 工业硅5月报 第二部分基本面情况 一、行情回顾 4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8700-9000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8200【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【8100,8800【【 工业硅5月报 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 二、需求：5月工业硅需求环比增加 1、5月DMC产量环比变动不大 2025【11【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【40【【【【【【【【【【【2026【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【DMC【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【62%【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3-5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【65%【【【4【DMC【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【DMC【【【【【18【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【Wind【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 2、5月多晶硅产量小幅增加 1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【1【【【【7.7【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1.8【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【8.8【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1700【【【【【【【【4000【【【【【【【【1000【【【【【【【【【8.78【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5000【【【【【【【【【【【【【4000【【【【【【【【【【500【【【【【【【【【【【6【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【9【【【【【 工业硅5月报 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 3、5月铝合金和出口对工业硅的需求环比变动不大 2025【1-12【【【【【【【【【【【72.06【【【【【【【1%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 三、供应：5月西南硅厂复产带动工业硅产量增加 4【【【706【【【【【【【【【199【【【【【【7【【【【【【55【;【【【39.53%;4【【【【【31.53【【【【【【32.15【【【 【【4【【【【【221【【【【【【【【【128【【【【【【【【【【【21【;【【【57.92%,【【【【20.90【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【4【【【【【【【23【【【【【【1【【【【【47.92%【4【【【3.54【【【【【【【【【850【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【3【【【【【【148【【【【【【【【【9【【【【【【3【【【【【【6.08%【【【【【2.02%【【【【【【【11.90%【【【【【【【【【【1.65【【【【【【【1840【【4【【【【【【【112【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【10【【【【 【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【4【【【1【【【33【【【【【 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【97【【【【【【【55.6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【18.75【【【【【【【【【23.9【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【14【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅5月报 2026年4月29日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 第三部分后市展望及策略推荐 供需展望：【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3-5【【【【【【65%【【【DMC【【【【【【【【【【【5【DMC【【【【4【【【【18【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【4000【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【4