贵州茅台：2025年第四季度业绩不及预期，2026年估值重置与风险

BuyAsia Kweichow Moutai 17 April 2026 ChinaConsumer 600519.SS Alcohol &Tobacco Kitchen sink on Q4 results, Reset for2026 Han Zhang Research Analyst+852-2203-5802 Moutai's4Q25totalrevenueofRMB41bn(downby19%YoY)andNPATof RMB18bn(downby30%YoY)undershotmarketexpectations.2025full-yearrevenuecameinatRMB172bn(downby1%YoY)andNPATwasRMB82bn(downby5%YoY).The2025DPSwasRMB52/shr,implyinga79%dividendpayout (vs75% in 2024) and a 4% yield. Whatshouldbenotedfromtheresults?Q4Moutai liquorsalesdroppedby20%YoYtoRMB36bnandotherseries liquordeclinedby17%YoYtoRMB4.4bn,primarilydueto strategicshipmentcontrolanddestockingtostabilizewholesaleprices,plusthelate2026Chinese New Year. Bychannel,Q4revenuefromdirectsales(asapercentageofmainbusinessrevenue)wasupby26pptsto72%:directsaleswereupby27%YoY,whilesales from wholesalers droppedby58%YoY.Forfull-year2025,revenuefrom direct sales surpassed that from wholesalers for the first time. Factoringin4Q25customeradvances(+3%QoQbut-17%YoY),adjustedsales decreased by ~18%YoY.This islargely consistent with4Q25 cashinflowfromaYoYdecrease insellinggoods(downby~15%toRMB45bn). Moutai's4Q250PMdeclinedbyaround8pptsunderoperatingdeleverage:1)4Q25GPM(at74%)wasdownby~5ppts;and2)itssellingexpenseratiooftotalrevenueincreasedby4ppts,whileitsG&AexpenseratiowaslargelyflatYoY.Consequently,thecompany's4Q25NPMdroppedby7pptsYoYto43%. Valuation:PTfine-tunedtoRMB1,684.70,1Q26resultstoshed lighton2026revenuegrowth;Buy Following the company's positive actions (Figure 2),Moutai's share price hasreboundedby~10%from its Januarylow, andFeitian Moutai's wholesalepriceshave recoveredtoaboveRMB1,650/bottlefromaroundRMB1,500/bottle inearlyJanuary.1Q26results (dueApr.24)will shed lighton2026total revenuegrowth,which the market now expects at mid-single digits. Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow Moutai cut2026-28Eearningsby7%onaverage.WealsorollforwardourDCFvaluation'sstartingyearfrom2025to2026E.OurDCF-based pricetargetis therefore loweredto RMB1,684.70 from RMB1,710.00. The stock is currently trading at a historicallylowvaluationat~21x2026EP/E,andweexpectthecompanytobottomoutin2026as itfocuses onmarketorientation.Maintain Buy. Alcohol & TobaccoKweichow Moutai Alcohol & TobaccoKweichow Moutai Alcohol &TobaccoKweichowMoutai Reuters:600519.SSBloomberg:600519CH Kweichow Moutai is principally engaged in the productionand distribution of baijiu and common baijiu products, with a leading position in the sauce-flavor and premium bajusegments. Its main product portfolio consists of KweichowMountai liquors and other liquor series. CashFlow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations Balance Sheet (CNYm)Cash and other liquid assets Solvency0 Key Company Metrics Han Zhang+85222035802han-a.zhang@db.com Appendix 1 subjectofthisr ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked with anasterisk mayalso be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition tothe United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequired byNon-UsRegulatorsand ExplanatoryNotes2.Deutsche Bank and/orits affiliate(s)mayactas a marketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancial instruments issued by this company. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked withanasterisk may alsobe required by at leastone jurisdiction inadditionto the United States.See 2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissued by this company. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedcompanyreportorvisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps:/research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting AnalystCertification The views expressed inthis report accuratelyreflectthe personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s)about the subjectissuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition,the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. HanZhang. Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow Moutai CNY 1532.00 Han Zhang2.01/27/2025Buy, Target Price Change CNY 1784.20, Current PriceCNY 1434.99 Han Zhang CNY 1544.00 Han Zhang4.10/29/2025Buy, Target Price Change CNY 1710.00, Current PriceCNY 1431.90 Han Zhang Alcohol&TobaccoKweichow Moutai EquityRatingandDispersionKey TheEquity RatingDispersionChart depictsthefollowing: The proportion of recommendations that are rated"buy","sell"and"hold"overthe previous 12 months.This is shown forE.g.50%abovethe"buy"/"CompaniesCovered"barmeansthat50%ofDB'sequityresearchcoveredcompaniesoverthe past 12 months havea"buy" rating. Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of"buy","sell" and"hold" recommendations we providetwo additional b