2025年第四季度全球房地产趋势与策略报告：机遇与风险分析
Global trends and tactics Real estate opportunities and risks in the current environment Table of contents Global overview Global real estate returns positive last 5 quarters Following a two-year reset, global private real estate values have ticked up for five consecutive quarters. Due to realestate’s stable income return component, total returns have now been positive for five consecutive quarters. Values are rebounding in most markets Globally, values have ticked up in each of the last five quarters. Most of the countries across Europe are nowbeginning to show meaningful value increases. In Asia Pacific, Australia has stabilized while Japan and Koreamoderate. In the Americas, U.S. values are trending up but values in Canada are still adjusting downward. Returns positive across all countries in Q2 In the second quarter, all 21 countries in the MSCI Global Quarterly Property Index delivered positive total returnsfor investors. We are beginning to see consistency in this data—over each of the last four quarters, at least 20countries have generated positive total returns. Values fell in 3 of the 21, but the return from income more thanoffset the fall in prices. Returns positive in nearly all market segments In the second quarter, out of 50 available country and sector combinations, all but one produced positive total returns. Transaction volumes are starting to pick-up Over the trailing year, investment volumes for income-producing property totaled $739 billion across the U.S.,Europe, and Asia Pacific, which was a 19% increase relative to the same period last year. Investors are likely now underweight real estate In 2022, falling equity and fixed-income portfolios pushed real estate allocations above investors’ targets due to the“denominator effect,” but the situation has since reversed. With equities still near all-time highs, many investors arenow significantly below their 2021 real estate allocations and below their target weight. Jump to:Global|U.S.|Europe|APAC Commercial real estate debt markets Recovering demand from borrowers, coupled with banks’ repositioning as providers of back leverage and with newloans against repriced assets, the opportunity for debt funds to produce attractive risk/reward vintages is high. Lenders will continue to be selective Lenders are increasingly being selective, focusing on assets that demonstrate improving valuations, increased rentalincome and high-quality sustainability credentials. Surprisingly, in Europe, office transactions have made a comeback,accounting for 25% of financing requests in early 2025, second only to residential development (34%). This sectorbalance will vary globally, but what has been a clear trend and likely to continue to be a focus is that lenders are heavily •Lending risk is falling as capitalvalues have stabilized,and insome markets, are starting to Tighter pricing and lower LTVs are the new norm •Tighter pricing and lower LTVswill be the new norm in theshort-medium term as lenderscompete for the best assets Despite the challenging market conditions, loan pricing has become more competitive due to low transaction volumesand high competition among lenders for quality deals. However, this has not eroded lender focus on reducing risks asaverage day-one LTVs have also trended down since the end of 2023 and conservative LTV levels are now the new norm.Average senior LTVs are now sub 60% for all asset types in Europe, with some sectors as low as 50%. Highersenior-stretch loans are up to 70% LTV but are primarily through alternative lenders and come at substantially higher •Banks repositioning from directlending to providing backleverage to debt funds. This ismainly driven by regulatory Banks increasingly focused onback leverage Recent market volatility has dampened the appetite of banks to lend to real estate directly. In Europe, the recentlyimplemented Basel III Endgame is likely to have similar effect as the slotting regime has had in the U.K., with an increasein cost of capital for real estate lending. Ultimately, it is becoming less economically viable for banks to make real estateloans outside their core senior lending focus. However, banks have increasingly offered back leverage, which benefit from Sustainability: Global sentiment Despite pushback in certain markets, the global trend for greater adoption and integration of sustainability in Investors are continuing to allocate capital to low and zero carbon products, supporting the low carbon transition. Nuveen’srecent survey of over 800 institutionalinvestors representing $19 trillion of assets under management, found that almost seven out of 10 investors have or are considering net zero commitments (NZC) Corporate occupier commitment to decarbonization continues to grow, suggesting strong demand is built in for green buildings.In2024, more than 7,300companies representing over 40% of global market capitalization had an approved Science Based Target in place. Jump
